{"id":47306,"date":"2026-05-25T13:24:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T13:24:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-baris-ihtimali-fedin-sahin-durusunu-dengelerken-altin-4-550-dolarin-uzerinde-yatay-seyrediyor-yukselisler-sinirlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T13:24:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T13:24:56","slug":"abd-iran-baris-ihtimali-fedin-sahin-durusunu-dengelerken-altin-4-550-dolarin-uzerinde-yatay-seyrediyor-yukselisler-sinirlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-baris-ihtimali-fedin-sahin-durusunu-dengelerken-altin-4-550-dolarin-uzerinde-yatay-seyrediyor-yukselisler-sinirlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f ihtimali Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu dengelerken alt\u0131n 4.550 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde yatay seyrediyor, y\u00fckseli\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 4.550 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde destek buldu ancak yakla\u015f\u0131k bir haftad\u0131r s\u00fcren bant i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Hafta sonundaki geli\u015fmeler, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) bask\u0131lad\u0131 ve alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ancak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fmam\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) **\u015fahin** (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma ya da art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin beklentiler, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve **faiz getirisi olmayan** (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi yapmayan) alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenledi. Axios, Cumartesi ge\u00e7 saatlerde iki taraf\u0131n 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump da \u00e7er\u00e7evenin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde m\u00fczakere edildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bunun ard\u0131ndan Ham Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131 ve tatil nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacminde ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; bu da \u201cGreenback\u201d olarak an\u0131lan ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Trump ayr\u0131ca temsilcilere acele etmemelerini s\u00f6yledi ve resmi, do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f bir anla\u015fma imzalanana kadar \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar da iyimserli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Piyasalarda ise 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki fiyatlamalar dolara destek verdi. Bu nedenle analistler, 4.450 dolar civar\u0131nda (Mart sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa vadeli dipten s\u00f6z edebilmek i\u00e7in ek al\u0131m i\u015faretleri ar\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat, **a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc paralel kanal** (fiyat\u0131n iki paralel \u00e7izgi aras\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimle hareket etmesi) i\u00e7inde kal\u0131yor. Kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131, 4 saatlik grafikte 4.650 dolar civar\u0131ndaki **200 periyot EMA** (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. **MACD** (iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve histogram\u0131 pozitif; **RSI** (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; h\u0131z ve momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er) 50\u2019li seviyelerin ortas\u0131nda. Destek 4.360 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bunun alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma d\u00fczeltmeyi derinle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n

Rekabet Eden Dinamikler Alt\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131sa Vadeli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Belirliyor<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcn, 25 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla alt\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara dair belirsizlik yaratan z\u0131t etkiler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 destek sa\u011flasa da daha bask\u0131n unsur Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu. CME Fed Fund vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerine (Fed politika faizine y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) g\u00f6re, Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **25 baz puan** (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu durum dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ve alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Resmi bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalan\u0131rsa, dolar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla alt\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ancak ge\u00e7mi\u015fte jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2015\u2019teki \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk a\u015famas\u0131), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para politikas\u0131yla dengelendi\u011finde alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzun vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki yaratma e\u011filiminde oldu. Bu nedenle 4.650 dolardaki diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden ziyade \u201cyorgunluk\u201d i\u015faretleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izlemek daha do\u011fru olabilir.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon Piyasas\u0131 Belirsizlikte \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131na \u0130\u015faret Ediyor<\/h3>\n

Alt\u0131nda ana belirleyici, Fed\u2019in enflasyonu kontrol etme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; bu da **faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar** \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de alt\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kanal i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle bu zay\u0131f tabloyu teyit ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 4.360 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kanal deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, 4.450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda **kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131** (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) **put opsiyonlar\u0131** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksek belirsizlik, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Alt\u0131n\u0131n **ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131** (opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) son bir haftada y\u00fckseldi. CBOE Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ) 17,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, piyasada yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde normalin \u00fczerinde fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, her iki y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harekette kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen **straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) gibi stratejileri daha maliyetli hale getiriyor; ancak bant k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa getirisi de y\u00fcksek olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda kritik bant: XAU\/USD 4.550 \u00fczeri tutunuyor, ancak Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi y\u00fckseli\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes beklentisi dolar bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa da 4.650 diren\u00e7, 4.360 destek g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47306\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}