USD\/INR ge\u00e7en cuma %0,5 zay\u0131flayarak 95,71\u2019e indi ve hafta genelinde ilave %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Hindistan Rupisi (INR), k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), spot piyasada (anl\u0131k teslimatl\u0131 d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lan piyasa) aktif sat\u0131\u015f yaparak ve alt\u0131n ithalat kurallar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak (alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131ran d\u00fczenlemeler) rupiye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Yerel bas\u0131nda yer alan haberlere g\u00f6re RBI Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sanjay Malhotra, 5 Haziran\u2019daki bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme alabilir. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ek ad\u0131mlarla birlikte gelebilir. Bunlar aras\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 cinsi tahvil ihrac\u0131 (dolar \u00fczerinden bor\u00e7lanma) ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Hindistan vatanda\u015flar\u0131ndan (NRI: yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fayan Hintliler) dolar mevduat\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyi hedefleyen \u00f6zel programlar yer al\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 2013\u2019teki \u201cTaper Tantrum\u201d d\u00f6neminde (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeyi azaltaca\u011f\u0131 sinyaliyle piyasalarda ya\u015fanan sert dalgalanma) uygulanan ad\u0131mlara benzetiliyor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin spot piyasada dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ile rupiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale, USD\/INR kurunda k\u0131sa vadede bir \u201ctavan\u201d etkisi (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlama) yarat\u0131yor. Bu da paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmekte zorlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenen ana g\u00fcndem 5 Haziran\u2019daki toplant\u0131; burada faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Bu tarihe yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihte\/\u00f6ncesinde belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. Bu ortamda \u201cstraddle\u201d ile oynakl\u0131k almak (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin, faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile dolar\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik programlar\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 2013 Taper Tantrum d\u00f6nemindeki ad\u0131mlarla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde benzer ve o d\u00f6nemde rupinin dengelenmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bu tedbirlerin birlikte uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda etkili olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 640 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor d\u00fczeyde d\u00f6viz rezervi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n elindeki d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131), RBI\u2019ye politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kaynak sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin rupiyi destekleme niyeti net oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, 5 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda risk dengesinin INR lehine (rupi g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde) oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle haziran sonu veya temmuz vadeli USD\/INR \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu sayede paritede olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131rken azami risk \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi ate\u015f hatt\u0131nda: USD\/INR 95,71\u2019e geriledi. Y\u00fcksek petrol ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken RBI spot sat\u0131\u015f ve alt\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131yla savunmada. 5 Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, dolar tahvili ve NRI mevduat\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlar masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47305\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}