Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) iyile\u015fse de Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hafif negatif seyretti. NZD\/USD paritesi dar bantta kald\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015f denemeleri 0,5880\u2019in alt\u0131nda tekrar tekrar s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n dibi olan 0,5815 seviyesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcndemde. \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n m\u00fczakereyle (masada anla\u015fmayla) sona erebilece\u011fi beklentisi, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (piyasa stresi art\u0131nca talep g\u00f6ren) dolara olan talebi azaltt\u0131. Ancak \u201ckiwi\u201d (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) politikay\u0131 sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na pozisyon ald\u0131. Enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) enerji maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi ifade edilirken, %0,2\u2019lik GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) daha fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat hareketi \u201cy\u00fckselen \u00fc\u00e7gen\u201d (diplerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, tepe b\u00f6lgesinin yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma formasyonu) olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 50\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerindeydi. MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama; trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ise hafif pozitif kalarak n\u00f6tr\u2013hafif pozitif bir tona i\u015faret etti. Diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi 0,5880\u20130,5890 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 0,5920\u20130,5930 band\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 8, 11 ve 12 May\u0131s zirvelerine referansla 0,5970 b\u00f6lgesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Destekler 0,5860, ard\u0131ndan 0,5815 ve 0,5794 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD paritesi dar bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, 0,5880 seviyesi yukar\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bariyer olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak RBNZ faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde net bir y\u00f6n bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Bu tablo, temel belirsizli\u011fin (faiz karar\u0131na dair netlik olmamas\u0131n\u0131n) teknik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 klasik bir \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile resesyondan (ekonomide daralma) ka\u00e7\u0131nma aras\u0131ndaki ikilemi, 2023-2024\u2019te k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte g\u00f6r\u00fclen stagflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 (y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi) an\u0131msat\u0131yor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; ge\u00e7mi\u015fte RBNZ, b\u00fcy\u00fcme bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcrecine ara vermeye daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti. Politika faizinin (resm\u00ee faiz oran\u0131) %5,5\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu beklenti zaten fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 (piyasa taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nceden sat\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131) i\u00e7in kiwiye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ABD ekonomisi daha diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu verilerine g\u00f6re tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (kamudan ve tar\u0131mdan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) ayl\u0131k 200 binin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015flar \u00fcretmeye devam ediyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde hareket etmesi) dolar\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak destekliyor. Bu nedenle, NZD\/USD\u2019de 0,5900 \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici olmadan zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kiwi\u2019de kritik hafta: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artsa da NZD\/USD 0,5880 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. RBNZ\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Destek 0,5815.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47303\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}