AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde iki seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,7170 civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Avustralya dolar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinin (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolara gibi daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) azalmas\u0131yla destek buldu. Haberlere g\u00f6re iki \u00fclke, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzatmas\u0131na dayal\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7er\u00e7eveye g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lacak, \u0130ran may\u0131nlar\u0131 temizleyip gemilerin serbest ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin verecek, ABD ise \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131racak.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, daha zay\u0131f istihdam verileri sonras\u0131 Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) ek \u201cparasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlarla ekonomiyi so\u011futma) ihtimalinin gerilemesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Avustralya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Nisan\u2019da Mart\u2019taki %4,3\u2019ten %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,5 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Westpac fiyatlamas\u0131, bir sonraki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n veriden \u00f6nceki %13\u2019ten %3\u2019e indi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. ABD dolar\u0131na destek ise ABD\u2019de \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyon (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen enflasyon) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden geldi. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge), y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %41,0 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD paritesinin (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) 0,7170 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici destek buldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bunda olumlu jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkili. Olas\u0131 ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltarak Avustralya dolar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek veriyor. Bu ge\u00e7ici g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nerilen 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131\u201d art\u0131rabilecek (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici. Anla\u015fma resmen duyurulursa, piyasalarda jeopolitik riskin fiyatlardan \u201c\u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d (risk priminin azalmas\u0131) ile h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ancak bu hareketin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fi ve sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u201cTemel\u201d a\u00e7\u0131dan (makro veriler ve politika beklentileri), Avustralya dolar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6zellikle son istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019e s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi, RBA\u2019dan yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile RBA aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, parite i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca ihracat kalemi demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131. K\u00fcresel sanayi talebine (d\u00fcnya \u00fcretim i\u015ftah\u0131) ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle fiyatlar ton ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d RBA (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, daha gev\u015fek duru\u015f) ve d\u00fc\u015fen emtia fiyatlar\u0131 birle\u015fimi, para birimini belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Nisan ay\u0131 \u00c7ekirdek PCE verisi (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 geldi ve Fed\u2019in bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapabilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. FedWatch\u2019ta y\u0131l sonuna kadar %41 olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bu alg\u0131y\u0131 destekliyor ve dolar\u0131n belirgin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7170\u2019te tutunuyor: ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi beklentisi g\u00fcvenli liman dolar talebini azalt\u0131p AUD\u2019a nefes ald\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak i\u015fsizlik %4,5, RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %3\u2019e inerken Fed\u2019in yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonu paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riskleri canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47301"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47301\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}