\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in m\u00fczakere y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u015fu a\u015famada n\u00fckleer konular\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6netiminin k\u0131y\u0131da\u015f \u00fclkelere ait oldu\u011funu savundu. ISNA\u2019n\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 diplomat, n\u00fckleer dosya ve y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum stoklar\u0131n\u0131n (silah yap\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015fan seviyelerde zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum birikimi) yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve dondurulan varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD ile 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ele al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz konusunun ise Umman ile ikili d\u00fczeyde (iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda) y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu Truth Social\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201canla\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde m\u00fczakere edildi\u011fi ve son detaylar netle\u015ftik\u00e7e H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki payla\u015f\u0131mla \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Bakanl\u0131k, Pakistan\u2019a heyet g\u00f6nderme plan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ele al\u0131nan ba\u015fl\u0131klarda ilerleme sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015fman\u0131n imzaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n L\u00fcbnan dahil t\u00fcm cephelerde sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesini kapsayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti (toll: bo\u011faz ge\u00e7i\u015finden al\u0131nan \u00fccret) almayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u00fccretli hizmetlerin \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d olarak nitelendirilmemesi gerekti\u011fini ifade etti. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ham petrol\u00fc WTI (Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol referans\u0131) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 89,52 dolarl\u0131k dipten yakla\u015f\u0131k 91,60 dolara toparland\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepeti kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fc) ise 99,0 civar\u0131nda dengelendikten sonra 99,10\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ve ABD\u2019den olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin \u00e7eli\u015fkili mesajlar geliyor; bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. WTI\u2019daki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki toparlanma, piyasan\u0131n bu jeopolitik gerginli\u011fe \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu belirsizlik, enerji ve kur t\u00fcrevleri (derivatives: de\u011feri dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken WTI\u2019da oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi OVX (OVX: WTI opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00fckseldi. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos 2026 vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden iki y\u00f6nde de yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle\/strangle (straddle: ayn\u0131 vade\/ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; strangle: ayn\u0131 vade\/farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Odak noktas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131nda kritik bir dar bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi EIA (EIA: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) verilerine g\u00f6re bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde, yani k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si ge\u00e7iyor. Bu ak\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelik alg\u0131lanan her tehdit, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201chizmet\u201d i\u00e7in \u00fccret talep etmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na h\u0131zla risk primi (risk premium: belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen pay) ekler.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n (flight-to-safety: risk art\u0131nca daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme) klasik sonucu. Tarihsel olarak Ortado\u011fu geriliminin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde sermaye ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelir ve dolar\u0131 destekler. M\u00fczakerelerde belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e DXY\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir; bu da d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda (FX options: d\u00f6viz kuruna dayal\u0131 opsiyon) korunma veya dolar\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma imkan\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakere takvimi, piyasalar i\u00e7in net bir zaman \u00e7izelgesi veriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi petrol\u00fc sert yukar\u0131, kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fma ise fiyatlar\u0131 son dip seviyelere do\u011fru \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u0131rmanma sinyali i\u00e7in ikincil g\u00f6stergeler de izleniyor. Bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en tankerlerin deniz sigortas\u0131 (maritime insurance: gemi ve y\u00fck sigortas\u0131) fiyatlar\u0131na dikkat edilmeli. Lloyd\u2019s Market Association Joint War Committee (sava\u015f riski de\u011ferlendirmesi yapan komite) artan riski ilk fiyatlayan taraf olur. Bu primlerdeki art\u0131\u015f, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na yans\u0131madan \u00f6nce fiziki piyasada (physical market: ger\u00e7ek teslimatl\u0131 petrol ticareti) bozulma ihtimaline erken uyar\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de \u201canla\u015fma tamam\u201d s\u00f6ylemine \u0130ran\u2019dan fren: Tahran, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye odakl\u0131 m\u00fczakere y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor, n\u00fckleeri 60 g\u00fcne b\u0131rak\u0131yor. \u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyallerle WTI 91,6$, DXY 99,10; oynakl\u0131k ve t\u00fcrev f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47300\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}