{"id":47299,"date":"2026-05-25T11:19:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T11:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-baris-umutlariyla-dolar-gerilerken-piyasalar-pce-verisi-ve-sahin-fed-fiyatlamasina-odaklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T11:19:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T11:19:15","slug":"abd-iran-baris-umutlariyla-dolar-gerilerken-piyasalar-pce-verisi-ve-sahin-fed-fiyatlamasina-odaklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-baris-umutlariyla-dolar-gerilerken-piyasalar-pce-verisi-ve-sahin-fed-fiyatlamasina-odaklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131yla dolar gerilerken, piyasalar PCE verisi ve \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131na odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bo\u015flukla (gap: fiyat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,30\u2019daki\u2014ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n bant alt\u0131\u2014seviyesinden 99,00\u2019a geriledi. Hareket, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentileri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi ihtimalinin \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen koruyucu varl\u0131k) para birimine talebi azaltmas\u0131yla geldi; parite \u00f6nceki zirvelerin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Donald Trump, Tahran ile anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) art\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak Trump, m\u00fczakerecilere \u201canla\u015fmaya acele etmemeleri\u201d gerekti\u011fini de s\u00f6yledi ve ABD\u2019nin, anla\u015fma imzalanana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtti. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u201cmasada olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teklif\u201d oldu\u011funu, di\u011fer se\u00e7eneklerden \u00f6nce diplomasinin denenece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n

ABD piyasalar\u0131 Anma G\u00fcn\u00fc (Memorial Day) nedeniyle kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan pazartesi veri takvimi bo\u015ftu; odak per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne kay\u0131yor. PCE, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) en yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinden biri. Son veriler ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; buna h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselen fiyatlar da eklenince Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131 daha yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden piyasan\u0131n Fed faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re fiyatlama, 28 \u015eubat\u2019taki \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki beklentilerden farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da USD\u2019de ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Geli\u015fmeler ve Petrol Ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar Alg\u0131s\u0131na Etkisi<\/h3>\n

Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki yeniden canlanan diplomatik temaslara tepki veriyor. Bu iyimserlik, d\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri azalt\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n ortalar\u0131na gerilemesi, g\u00fcvenli liman dolar talebini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cyap\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve\u201d ifadeleri, \u015fimdilik bu risk alma e\u011filimini destekliyor. Ancak 2024 ve 2025\u2019teki benzer diplomatik giri\u015fimlerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131, alg\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

PCE Verisi ve Fed\u2019in De\u011fi\u015fen Faiz Beklentisi<\/h3>\n

Yurt i\u00e7inde odak, bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan ay\u0131 PCE verisine kay\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131na ait \u00e7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan enflasyon) %2,8\u2019de kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu seviye Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Verinin y\u00fcksek gelmesi, Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, piyasan\u0131n daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir Fed beklentisi olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni.<\/p>\n

CME FedWatch, y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 g\u00f6steriyor; bu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz indirimi beklentilerine g\u00f6re sert bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama, dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor; jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli geri \u00e7ekilmeler yaratsa da para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi daha derin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar haftaya gap\u2019li d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131: ABD\u2011\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f umudu ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali g\u00fcvenli liman talebini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe PCE\u2019de; \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47299"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47299\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}