{"id":47284,"date":"2026-05-25T07:03:34","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T07:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlari-dolari-zayiflatirken-usd-chf-dususunu-surduruyor-fed-ve-snb-kaynakli-riskler-gundemde\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T07:03:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T07:03:34","slug":"abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlari-dolari-zayiflatirken-usd-chf-dususunu-surduruyor-fed-ve-snb-kaynakli-riskler-gundemde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlari-dolari-zayiflatirken-usd-chf-dususunu-surduruyor-fed-ve-snb-kaynakli-riskler-gundemde\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran Anla\u015fmas\u0131 Umutlar\u0131 Dolar\u0131 Zay\u0131flat\u0131rken USD\/CHF D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; Fed ve SNB Kaynakl\u0131 Riskler G\u00fcndemde"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin azalmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline dair artan iyimserlik nedeniyle Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 0,7820 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta geriledi. Axios\u2019un bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 habere g\u00f6re iki \u00fclke, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131. Teklif, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor: \u0130ran may\u0131nlar\u0131 temizleyip gemilerin serbest ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin verirken, ABD de \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131racak.<\/p>\n

Dolar\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon endi\u015felerinin yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu endi\u015feler, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) i\u00e7in \u201cek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u201d beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45,1 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Politika belirsizli\u011fi de s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, Fed\u2019in resmi metninde \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201d (faiz indirimi sinyali) korunmas\u0131na art\u0131k destek vermedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Martin Schlegel ise gerekti\u011finde d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun da \u201cfiyat istikrar\u0131\u201d aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Trendine Bak\u0131\u015f ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

USD\/CHF\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131, risklerin azalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme. Bu durum, zaten WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 79 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7ekti. (WTI: ABD tipi ham petrol; \u201cvadeli i\u015flem\u201d: ileride teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fme.) Petrol\u00fcn geri \u00e7ekilmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, USD\/CHF\u2019de 0,7750 ve 0,7700 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. (Put opsiyonu: Fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran, belirli bir fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\/strike: Bu hakk\u0131n ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu seviye.) Bu strateji, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Parite \u00f6nemli destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki benzer gerilim azalma d\u00f6nemleri, 0,7700\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Riskler: Fed Politikas\u0131 ve SNB M\u00fcdahalesi<\/h3>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu konusunda temkinli olmak gerekiyor. Nisan 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisi beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelerek %3,6 oldu. Bu, Waller\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131, piyasa y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarsa dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer tarafta SNB, \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fken olmaya devam ediyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon %1,5 ile hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan %0-2 i\u00e7inde. Bu nedenle SNB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 yok. Ancak frank \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rsa SNB, \u201cs\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahale\u201d (kurun y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla etkileme) yapabilir ya da piyasada frank sat\u0131p (d\u00f6viz alarak) para birimini zay\u0131flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar alarma ge\u00e7ti: USD\/CHF 0,7820\u2019ye inerken ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 iyimserli\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltt\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin sinyalleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; stratejide 0,7750\/0,7700 put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47284\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}