{"id":47283,"date":"2026-05-25T07:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T07:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlariyla-eur-usd-yukselis-boslugu-yapti-fed-faiz-beklentileri-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T07:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T07:00:18","slug":"abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlariyla-eur-usd-yukselis-boslugu-yapti-fed-faiz-beklentileri-yukselisi-sinirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-anlasmasi-umutlariyla-eur-usd-yukselis-boslugu-yapti-fed-faiz-beklentileri-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran Anla\u015fmas\u0131 Umutlar\u0131yla EUR\/USD Y\u00fckseli\u015f Bo\u015flu\u011fu Yapt\u0131, Fed Faiz Beklentileri Y\u00fckseli\u015fi S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD haftaya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bo\u015flukla (fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserlik, g\u00fcvenli liman (risk art\u0131nca talep g\u00f6ren) ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Parite Asya i\u015flemlerinde yeniden 1,16\u2019n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi ve ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1575 dip seviyesinden toparland\u0131; bu seviye 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f d\u00fczeydi. Buna ra\u011fmen genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm temkinli: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) i\u00e7in daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimli) beklentiler, dolar\u0131n daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde parite, nisan-may\u0131s d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin (\u00f6nceki hareketin olas\u0131 geri alma b\u00f6lgeleri) \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri yap\u0131c\u0131: RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) yakla\u015f\u0131k 58\u2019de, MACD (iki hareketli ortalama fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 trend g\u00f6stergesi) ise hafif art\u0131da; bu da g\u00fcn i\u00e7i ek y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7 %38,2 seviyesinde 1,1675-1,1680 band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bunun \u00fczerinde 1,1710 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Burada 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk SMA (basit hareketli ortalama; trendi yumu\u015fatarak g\u00f6sterir) ile %50 d\u00fczeltme seviyesi kesi\u015fiyor; bu b\u00f6lgenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde %61,8\u2019de 1,1740, ard\u0131ndan %78,6\u2019da 1,1785 ve potansiyel olarak 1,1842 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Destek 1,1638 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1574 seviyelerinde; 1,1574\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na sarkma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Short-Term Opportunities and Geopolitical Influence<\/h3>\n

Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fu nedeniyle, jeopolitik iyimserli\u011fin tazelenmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali \u015fu a\u015famada dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor ve pariteyi yeniden 1,16\u2019n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak bu hava k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olabilir; bu y\u00fczden temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu paritede ana gerilim, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ile de\u011fi\u015fen piyasa i\u015ftah\u0131 aras\u0131nda. Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE; enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verisi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da kalemleri hari\u00e7) inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu temel bask\u0131, dolar\u0131n belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euronun y\u00fckseli\u015fini tavanlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Trading Strategies and Outlook for EUR\/USD<\/h3>\n

Yak\u0131n vadeli yukar\u0131 momentumdan yararlanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. Haftal\u0131k veya iki haftal\u0131k vadeli, 1,1710 seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler hedeflenebilir; buras\u0131 teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan kritik bir kesi\u015fim b\u00f6lgesi. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken maksimum riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Ancak 1,1710-1,1740 band\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite bu b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015f\u0131rken, olas\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla \u201ccall spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call al\u0131p-satarak prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu strateji, orta vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131 destekleyen geni\u015f veri setiyle de uyumlu.<\/p>\n

E\u011fer k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi bozulur ve fiyat 1,1600 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerse, bunu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131 i\u00e7in tetikleyici olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) aras\u0131ndaki fark, uzun vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n beklentisini destekliyor; Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en ay %2,4\u2019e geriledi. 1,1574 taban\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, haziran sonu veya temmuz vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD haftaya \u201cgap\u201dli y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131; ABD-\u0130ran iyimserli\u011fi dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Ancak Fed\u2019in \u015fahin fiyatlamas\u0131 temkinli. Teknikte 1,1675-1,1710 diren\u00e7; 1,1638 ve 1,1574 destek. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47283\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}