ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 99,05 civar\u0131na geriledi. Piyasalar, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n baz\u0131 temel konularda ayr\u0131\u015fsa da bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyalleri fiyatlad\u0131. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, iki taraf\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak bir \u201cmutabakat zapt\u0131\u201d (taraflar\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7eve metin) i\u00e7in \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde m\u00fczakereyi tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Ancak zamanlama belirsizli\u011fi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130ran bo\u011fazdaki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD de \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemilere y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 devam ettiriyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitikteki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, faiz beklentilerini de etkiledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, h\u00e2len kapal\u0131 olan sevkiyat hatt\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerini yeniden de\u011ferlendirerek yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla talebi so\u011futma) ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Yine de CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45,1 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nde. Geni\u015f d\u00f6viz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde ise 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re dolar, k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hacminin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; bu da g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k i\u015flem demek.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile temel ekonomik veriler aras\u0131nda klasik bir \u00e7eki\u015fme var ve bu durum ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon (kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek seyreden fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam dalgalanmaya (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) odaklanan i\u015flemciler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli; piyasa iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket edebilir. VIX endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) son bir ayda 14 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir bantta seyrederken, opsiyon primleri (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan maliyet) b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket riskini yeterince yans\u0131tm\u0131yor olabilir. EUR\/USD veya USD\/JPY\u2019de straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; y\u00f6n de\u011fil hareket b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne oynama) gibi ara\u00e7larla dalgalanma sat\u0131n almak, netle\u015fme \u00f6ncesinde temkinli bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyadaki petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k. Tarihsel olarak b\u00f6lgede tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gerilemeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131; bu da enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu nedenle ham petrol t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) ve USD\/CAD gibi ilgili paritelerde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) bu y\u0131l %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretmesi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE raporu kritik olacak. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir veri, piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %45\u2019lik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve dolar\u0131n son kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla geri almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t etkiler nedeniyle, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve korunmas\u0131z (hedge edilmemi\u015f; ters harekette zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan koruma olmadan) y\u00f6n pozisyonlar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak daha do\u011fru olur. Opsiyon spread\u2019leri (bir opsiyonu al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir opsiyonu satarak risk ve maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) gibi riski \u00f6nceden belirli stratejilerle ilerlemek daha makul bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. B\u00f6ylece, \u00f6rne\u011fin PCE sonras\u0131 dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131rken, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fmesi halinde olas\u0131 zarar s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY Asya\u2019da 99,05\u2019e \u00e7ekildi: Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz i\u00e7in \u201cmutabakat zapt\u0131\u201d sinyali dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Ancak PCE ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon riskleri Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonu 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %45\u2019te tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47281\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}