NZD\/USD, \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra geriledi, ancak Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,5870 civar\u0131nda art\u0131da kald\u0131. Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, NZIER\u2019in g\u00f6lge kurul \u00fcyelerinin \u00e7o\u011funun 27 May\u0131s karar\u0131nda Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n Resmi Nakit Faizini (Official Cash Rate\u2014merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizi) %2,25\u2019te tutmay\u0131 desteklemesinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u00fcyeler petrol fiyat \u015fokunun talep kaynakl\u0131 de\u011fil arz kaynakl\u0131 (\u00fcretim\/tedarikten gelen) oldu\u011funu savundu. Ayr\u0131ca daha zay\u0131f veriye dikkat \u00e7ektiler: i\u015fsizli\u011fin %5,6\u2019ya y\u00f6neldi\u011fi ve \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %0,2 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye, uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck veya negatif reel faiz (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) d\u00f6nemi ve artan enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek hemen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebindeki azalmayla zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. ABD-\u0130ran olas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair yeniden canlanan iyimserlik, enflasyon ve Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Axios, bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, taraflar\u0131n 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; buna g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lacak, \u0130ran may\u0131nlar\u0131 temizleyip gemilerin serbest ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin verecek, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131racak. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n Fed metninde \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201dni (ileride faiz indirimi sinyali) art\u0131k desteklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de tartt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 0,5870 civar\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Temel sorun, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in politika faizini y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma. Son \u00e7eyreklik GSYH verisinin yaln\u0131zca %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesi ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven endekslerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, faiz indirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re piyasa, RBNZ\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n duru\u015f) riskini tam fiyatlam\u0131yor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da ekonominin beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, temmuz vadeli NZD\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) olas\u0131 erken faiz indirimi s\u00fcrprizine kar\u015f\u0131 riskten korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma) amac\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na duyarl\u0131. Kapsaml\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylentiler g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azalt\u0131p petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015feterek dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak zay\u0131flatabilir. 2023 sonlar\u0131nda, farkl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ate\u015fkes beklentilerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) dalgas\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanma) art\u0131rabilir. \u00d6te yandan Fed, ABD enflasyonu %3,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde yap\u0131\u015fkan kal\u0131rken mevcut duru\u015funa ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Waller\u2019\u0131n \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201dnden vazge\u00e7meye d\u00f6n\u00fck s\u00f6zleri de bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (faiz indirimi yerine s\u0131k\u0131 politikaya yak\u0131n duru\u015f) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d RBNZ ile kararl\u0131 Fed aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, orta vadede NZD\/USD\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) \u015fu anda ABD Dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (USD\u2019de pozisyon tutmay\u0131) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve bu fark\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden Kiwi dolardaki (Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131) haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla gelen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmelerin, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kiwi\u2019de alarm: NZD\/USD 0,5870\u2019te tutunsa da RBNZ\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilemi ve olas\u0131 g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski art\u0131yor. Fed \u015fahin, jeopolitik iyimserlik dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatsa da orta vadede bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47280"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47280\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}