\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBOC), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\/CNY g\u00fcnl\u00fck merkez kurunu 6,8318 olarak belirledi. Bu seviye, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,8373\u2019e g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (yani yuan lehine) olsa da Reuters\u2019\u0131n 6,7880 seviyesindeki tahmininden daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131. PBOC, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kur belirleme (fixing: bankan\u0131n her g\u00fcn referans d\u00f6viz kuru ilan etmesi) mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131; fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 (enflasyonun kontrol\u00fc), kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi te\u015fvik etmek ve piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile piyasa geli\u015fimi gibi finansal reformlar\u0131 ilerletmek amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc USD\/CNY merkez kuru, PBOC\u2019nin \u201ckontroll\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d (kurun bir anda sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi yerine ad\u0131m ad\u0131m zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin verilmesi) politikas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Kur, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne g\u00f6re az da olsa daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc belirlense de piyasa tahminlerine k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Bu da yetkililerin ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f bir para birimine belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde izin verece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kontroll\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n hedefi, ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tetikleyebilece\u011fi d\u00fczensiz sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fclkeden h\u0131zl\u0131 para \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131) \u00f6nlemek.<\/p>\n
Genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu duru\u015fu destekliyor; son veriler zay\u0131f. \u00c7in\u2019in nisan ay\u0131 ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,5 geriledi. Sanayi \u00fcretimi de yava\u015flad\u0131; bu durum, k\u00fcresel talebin zay\u0131f seyretmesi nedeniyle imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, \u201cLoan Prime Rate\u201d (LPR: bankalar\u0131n \u015firketlere ve hanehalk\u0131na verdi\u011fi kredilerde referans faiz) \u00fczerinde sert faiz indirimlerinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken, rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz kurunu daha fazla kullanabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkedeki faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n aras\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da yuan \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CNY paritesinde kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f (yani yuan\u0131n kontroll\u00fc zay\u0131flamas\u0131) beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, USD\/CNH \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak bir strateji olabilir. USD\/CNH, yuan\u0131n offshore piyasadaki kuru (offshore: \u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki serbest piyasada olu\u015fan kur) anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, yuan\u0131n daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131na maruz kalma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, PBOC\u2019nin beklenenden sert m\u00fcdahale etmesi durumunda zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefler. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) piyasada kurun ne kadar zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p>\n
2023\u2019teki tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, PBOC \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kurun kontroll\u00fc ad\u0131mlarla zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin verip ard\u0131ndan ba\u015fka ara\u00e7lar\u0131 devreye soktu. Bu nedenle piyasa, Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131\u2019nda (RRR: bankalar\u0131n mevduat\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131nda tutma oran\u0131) olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri yak\u0131ndan izliyor. RRR indirimi, sisteme daha fazla likidite (piyasada kullan\u0131labilir para) verir ve yuan\u0131n kontroll\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz fixing: PBOC USD\/CNY\u2019yi 6,8318\u2019e \u00e7ekti; cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, Reuters tahminine g\u00f6re zay\u0131f. Mesaj net: kontroll\u00fc yuan de\u011fer kayb\u0131, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47279\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}