ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu (CFTC) verileri, alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131nda ticari ama\u00e7la i\u015flem yapmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (non-commercial: hedge fonlar gibi spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler) net pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 171,6 binden 159,8 bine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, son raporlama d\u00f6neminde spek\u00fclatif uzun (long: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan) pozisyonlar\u0131n azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 159.800 kontrata \u00e7ekmesiyle alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik alg\u0131da belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Daha iyimser bir seviye olan 171.600 kontrattan bu gerileme, k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (profit-taking: kazanc\u0131 realize etmek i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f) ve piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren oyuncularda g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi, son ekonomik verilerle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle nisan T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi\/enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %3,1 gelmesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyede tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Y\u00fcksek faiz, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n alternatif maliyetini (opportunity cost: ayn\u0131 para ba\u015fka bir faizde de\u011ferlendirilebilecekken vazge\u00e7ilen getiri) art\u0131r\u0131r ve alt\u0131n\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in daha az cazip hale getirebilir. Piyasan\u0131n \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisini fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 106,5 seviyesine kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, di\u011fer para birimlerini kullanan al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in genellikle alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in temel bir olumsuz unsur olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2017-2018 d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla (tightening: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve\/veya piyasadaki paray\u0131 azaltan ad\u0131mlar) spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131na ve ard\u0131ndan fiyat\u0131n yatay bir bantta hareket etmesine benziyor. Benzer bir yatay seyir yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda mevcut uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures: ileri tarihte fiyat\u0131 bug\u00fcnden belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pozisyonlar\u0131nda zarar-kes (stop-loss: fiyat aleyhe giderse otomatik \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f seviyesi) seviyelerini daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak veya ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019i (bear call spread: y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle iki al\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 risk azalt\u0131c\u0131 yap\u0131) kurmak da korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Hedef, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski azalt\u0131p oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na (volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net uzun pozisyonu 171,6 binden 159,8 bine indi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; stop-loss s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131n, hedge stratejileri masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47274\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}