USD\/TRY, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Asya i\u015flemlerinde 45,7778 ile rekor g\u00f6rd\u00fc. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131, y\u00fcksek mahkeme karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan artan siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fcst d\u00fczey ekonomi y\u00f6netimi Cuma sabah\u0131 toplan\u0131yor. Piyasadaki dalgalanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u0131nabilecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fecekler.<\/p>\n
Ankara\u2019da bir istinaf mahkemesi, Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi\u2019nin (CHP) 2023 kurultay\u0131n\u0131 iptal etti. Bu karar, mevcut Genel Ba\u015fkan \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel\u2019i g\u00f6revden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir tutum (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma ya da art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) fiyatlamas\u0131yla destek buldu. Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve enflasyon beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu da faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Fed yetkilileri politika faizini (federal fonlama faizi: bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi i\u00e7in hedef oran) sabit tutuyor. Faiz indirimlerine daha az odaklan\u0131yorlar. Enflasyon g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rsa faiz art\u0131rmaya a\u00e7\u0131k olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin ettirecek. G\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc dolan Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/TRY\u2019nin 45,78\u2019e yak\u0131n rekorla \u201cm\u00fckemmel f\u0131rt\u0131na\u201d denebilecek bir ortamda y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bunun ana nedenleri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de a\u011f\u0131r siyasi belirsizlik ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiydi. Bu temel etkenler h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erli g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in parite \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de devam eden siyasi risk, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ana muhalefet partisine y\u00f6nelik yarg\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla daha da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr oldu ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sorun olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu ortam, Lira\u2019daki k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmelerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/TRY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar\/ belirli tarihte, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir; b\u00f6ylece azami zarar (\u00f6denen opsiyon primi) ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temelinde y\u00fcksek enflasyon ge\u00e7mi\u015fi var. 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, i\u00e7 g\u00fcveni ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. S\u00fcregelen bu ekonomik bask\u0131, Lira\u2019n\u0131n siyasi \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 dayanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki rekor seviyeler istisna de\u011fil, y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren de\u011fer kayb\u0131 e\u011filiminin devam\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir etken; \u00f6zellikle 2025\u2019te Fed y\u00f6netimindeki de\u011fi\u015fim sonras\u0131nda. Daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleriyle bilinen Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n atanmas\u0131, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnlere uzanabilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6nceki ba\u015fkan\u0131n verilere daha \u00e7ok ba\u011fl\u0131 kalan tutumundan ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) 2022-2023 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminden sonra bile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretmesi, bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. Fed\u2019in ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131, Dolar\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle yaln\u0131zca Lira\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil, geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar pozisyonu almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 nedeniyle USD\/TRY\u2019de \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu durum, y\u00f6n konusunda karars\u0131z olup b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi bekleyenler i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini (iki y\u00f6ntem de al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynar; straddle ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, strangle farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 kullan\u0131r) cazip k\u0131labilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u00e7 politikas\u0131 ile ABD para politikas\u0131 birle\u015fince, sert ve ani hareketlere a\u00e7\u0131k bir zemin olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekor alarm\u0131: USD\/TRY Asya\u2019da 45,7778\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yarg\u0131 karar\u0131yla artan siyasi belirsizlik TL\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; ekonomi y\u00f6netimi dalgalanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in toplan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47263\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}