GBP\/USD, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3420\u2019ye geriledi. Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere verileri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasalar, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ni bekliyor.<\/p>\n
ONS (\u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi) verilerine g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (hanelerin ma\u011faza ve online al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f harcamalar\u0131) nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mart verisi %0,6 art\u0131\u015f olarak revize edildi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, %0,6 gerileme beklentisinden daha sert geldi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (akaryak\u0131t hari\u00e7), nisanda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 geriledi. \u00d6nceki veri %0,1 art\u0131\u015f olarak revize edilmi\u015fti. Piyasa beklentisi %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nisanda %0 oldu. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nem %1,4 art\u0131\u015f olarak revize edildi. Beklenti %1,3 art\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD, daha zay\u0131f gelen \u0130ngiltere enflasyon raporunun ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (i\u015fsizlerin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne oran\u0131) beklenmedik \u015fekilde %5,0\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi de, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re Donald Trump, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin ettirecek. Warsh, g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc dolan ancak devir tamamlanana kadar ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00f6revde kalan Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7ecek.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tablo baz\u0131 y\u00f6nleriyle benzer olsa da ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar de\u011fi\u015fti. Son ONS verileri, nisan 2026\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa %0,4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki %1,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re belirgin bir toparlanma. Ancak as\u0131l sorun enflasyon. \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun ana g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8 seviyesinde kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu da BoE\u2019nin \u201cs\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak talebi so\u011futma) duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon ile k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum, GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) beklenen fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. BoE hem enflasyonla m\u00fccadele edip hem de resesyondan (ekonomide daralma) ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar GBP\/USD\u2019de \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r; strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r. Her iki strateji de, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket olursa (yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131) kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu e\u011filim, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Fed\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7mesinin ard\u0131ndan h\u0131z kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. BoE\u2019nin aksine Fed daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) bir \u00e7izgi sinyali veriyor. Piyasalar, temmuz ay\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi), GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Parite \u015fu s\u0131ralar 1,2550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, Sterlin \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) riskten korunma (hedge; olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 ay vadeli ve \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyeden hak veren) GBP\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131na bakabilir. Bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yak\u0131n diplerin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlinde alarm: GBP\/USD 1,3420\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, i\u015fsizlik ve enflasyon BoE\u2019ye bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Michigan verisi ve Warsh\u2019l\u0131 \u015fahin Fed dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47255\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}