\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,7870 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. USD\/CHF paritesi, Pakistan\u2019\u0131n arabuluculu\u011funda \u201cson taslak\u201d haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda daha uzun vadeli bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n teyidini bekleyen piyasalarla s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,27 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ILNA ajans\u0131 bir tasla\u011fa ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve anla\u015fman\u0131n saatler i\u00e7inde duyurulabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran, zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumdan vazge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r de\u011fil ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn tan\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor. ABD verileri, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; \u00fcretim ve hizmetlerde ekonomik faaliyetin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan anket) 51,7\u2019de sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; imalattaki toparlanma, hizmetlerdeki yava\u015flamay\u0131 dengeledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de odak, k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d duru\u015ftan (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) uzakla\u015f\u0131p uzakla\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. ABD Dolar\u0131, k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin (FX; farkl\u0131 para birimlerinin al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren para birimi; 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel i\u015flem hacminin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131, yani g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,6 trilyon dolar\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), enflasyonu %2 hedefler ve enflasyon ile istihdam\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlar. Ayr\u0131ca niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE; piyasalardan tahvil al\u0131m\u0131yla para arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma, genelde dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r) veya niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT; bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme ve piyasadan likidite \u00e7ekme, genelde dolar\u0131 destekler) uygulayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde istikrar sa\u011flamad\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcren gerilim enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmez tuttu. Kal\u0131c\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n sa\u011flanamamas\u0131, jeopolitik riskin d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen \u00f6nemli bir unsur olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131 petrol taraf\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Brent (k\u00fcresel referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) 2026\u2019da \u015fimdiye kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak USD\/CHF \u015fu anda 0,9150 civar\u0131nda, belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek; bu, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD enflasyonuyla destekleniyor: Son T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verileri enflasyonun %2,8 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da Fed\u2019i mevcut seviyelerden faiz indirmekte isteksiz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada SNB, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d politikadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa dair beklentileri uygulad\u0131. Ancak \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun %1,4\u2019e gerilemesiyle SNB, faiz indirimine ba\u015flayabilecek ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biri olabilece\u011fi sinyalini veriyor. Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu ile SNB\u2019nin yeniden \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d tarafa yakla\u015fmas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, frang\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ana nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev ara\u00e7 (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, dolar\u0131n frank kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu net politika fark\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in 0,9200 veya 0,9250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) USD\/CHF al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n alma gibi stratejileri destekler; parite y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) artt\u0131; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirdi. Bu nedenle \u201cspread\u201d (yay\u0131l\u0131m; ayn\u0131 anda bir opsiyon al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir opsiyon satarak maliyeti azaltma) kullanmak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread; bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satma) ile ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 primi (opsiyon \u00fccreti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF\u2019de kilit soru: Bar\u0131\u015f tasla\u011f\u0131 gelir mi? Jeopolitik belirsizlik ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Frank\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed temkinli, SNB g\u00fcvercin; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekleyip opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47246\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}