Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (Dow Jones Industrial Average), per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve tahvil getirilerindeki (faiz getirisi) art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 49.700\u2019e geriledi. Ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, Al Arabiya\u2019y\u0131 kaynak g\u00f6stererek Pakistan arabuluculu\u011fuyla nihai bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fma tasla\u011f\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun saatler i\u00e7inde duyurulabilece\u011fini yaz\u0131nca endeks 50.000\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 50.350\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu (y\u0131l baz\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %4\u2019e yak\u0131n tutarak %2\u2019lik hedefin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in politika faizine dair beklentisini g\u00f6steren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali de y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n
Haberden \u00f6nce 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi yeniden %4\u2019\u00fcn ortalar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k konut kredisi faizi (mortgage) %7\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu seviye ge\u00e7en yazdan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylere yak\u0131n. ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi: Konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 209.000 oldu; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Philadelphia Fed imalat anketi (b\u00f6lgesel sanayi e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) eksi b\u00f6lgeye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Mart ve nisan aylar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki takvimlerin sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131, ate\u015fkeslerin ilan edilip ard\u0131ndan bozuldu\u011fu bildirildi. Haberlerde ayr\u0131ca Pakistan Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Tahran\u2019a gidece\u011fi, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer faaliyetlerin dondurulmas\u0131n\u0131n (nuclear freeze: belirli bir s\u00fcre n\u00fckleer program\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131\/s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) s\u00fcresi konusunda h\u00e2l\u00e2 anla\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n, k\u0131l pay\u0131 ge\u00e7en onay oylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin etmesi bekleniyor; Jerome Powell ise y\u00f6netim kurulundaki koltu\u011funu ve oy hakk\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi verisinin 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisini %4,5\u2019e, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentiyi de %3,4\u2019e yak\u0131n g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor; ayr\u0131ca Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair man\u015fetlerle piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn tamamen de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Zorlanan Dow Jones, h\u0131zla 50.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi beklentisine do\u011frudan tepkiydi.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u015flemin merkezinde ham petrol var; son bir y\u0131lda enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ana kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc (ABD\u2019de referans kabul edilen ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc), varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara yak\u0131n zirvelerinden duyuruyu izleyen g\u00fcnlerde %10\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek 82 dolar civar\u0131na indi. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) anla\u015fma s\u00fcrerse enerji hisselerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan opsiyon) veya ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu makas\u0131 satmak (call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: prim geliri i\u00e7in belirli aral\u0131kta al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p almak) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; XLE enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019si (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) bu kapsamda izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 gerileme, yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 da etkiler. Daha ge\u00e7en ay Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri 2026 sonuna kadar faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyordu. \u015eimdi CME FedWatch verisi (piyasan\u0131n faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge), eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalinin neredeyse %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; haber \u00f6ncesinde bunun %15 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 da h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,6\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,35\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Bu, \u00f6zellikle faizlere en duyarl\u0131 alanlara (faiz y\u00fckselince en \u00e7ok etkilenen sekt\u00f6rler) nefes ald\u0131r\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131ndan do\u011frudan yararlanabilecek finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019si (XLF) ve konut in\u015faat\u0131 \u015firketleri ETF\u2019si (ITB) gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklentisiyle al\u0131nan opsiyon) pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin hen\u00fcz imzalanmam\u0131\u015f bir anla\u015fmaya dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 2025\u2019te benzer man\u015fetlerde hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi; bu, risklerin hafife al\u0131nabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir korunma, anla\u015fma bozulursa sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 Dow ya da SPY \u00fczerinde (SPY: S&P 500 endeksini izleyen ETF) ucuza bulunabilen, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da olan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyattan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put) almak olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Michigan \u00dcniversitesi g\u00fcven endeksi raporu kritik olacak. 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6rne\u011fin %4,5\u2019ten %4\u2019e do\u011fru gerileme, piyasan\u0131n hareketini teyit eder ve yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019na dayanak sa\u011flar. Opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131 (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bu \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re kurgulanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok man\u015fet, Dow\u2019u u\u00e7urdu! Petrol 100 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131nca endeks 49.700\u2019e indi; ABD-\u0130ran taslak anla\u015fmas\u0131 iddias\u0131yla 50.350\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Tahvil faizleri geriledi, Fed beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47223\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}