{"id":47221,"date":"2026-05-22T01:24:20","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T01:24:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ham-petrol-iran-anlasmasi-soylentilerinin-odagi-hurmuz-riskinden-arz-gorunumune-cevirmesiyle-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-22T01:24:20","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T01:24:20","slug":"ham-petrol-iran-anlasmasi-soylentilerinin-odagi-hurmuz-riskinden-arz-gorunumune-cevirmesiyle-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ham-petrol-iran-anlasmasi-soylentilerinin-odagi-hurmuz-riskinden-arz-gorunumune-cevirmesiyle-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ham petrol, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00f6ylentilerinin oda\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskinden arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne \u00e7evirmesiyle geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ham petrol (ham halde \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, rafine edilmemi\u015f petrol) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumunu (n\u00fckleer yak\u0131t i\u00e7in safla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan uranyum) \u00fclkede tutaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberlerin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. Ancak daha sonra \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, Al Arabiya\u2019ya dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haberde Pakistan\u2019\u0131n arabuluculu\u011funda haz\u0131rlanan nihai ABD-\u0130ran taslak anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde duyurulabilece\u011fini yaz\u0131nca fiyatlar geriledi. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; odak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma endi\u015felerinden sevkiyat rotalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimaline kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Son d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar\u0131n belli bir taban\u0131n alt\u0131na inmemesinde (fiyat taban\u0131: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durdu\u011fu b\u00f6lge) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etkili oldu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan k\u00fcresel petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h ve \u015eubat sonundan bu yana ge\u00e7i\u015fler k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131. Haberlerde Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n da seyr\u00fcseferin (deniz trafi\u011finin) \u015eubat \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczene d\u00f6nmesini istedi\u011fi, bunun da arz endi\u015felerini (piyasaya yeterli petrol gelip gelmeyece\u011fi kayg\u0131s\u0131) azaltaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n Oda\u011f\u0131 Anla\u015fma \u0130htimaline Kayd\u0131<\/h3>\n

Mart ve Nisan\u2019daki \u00f6nceki son tarihler kal\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma olmadan ge\u00e7ti; ate\u015fkesler (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durmas\u0131) ilan edildi, ard\u0131ndan bozuldu. Son bilgilendirmeler imzal\u0131 bir anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme g\u00fcndemi olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Pakistan Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da kalan farklar\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in Tahran\u2019a gitti\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n

4 saatlik grafikte WTI, May\u0131s boyunca 95-96 dolar civar\u0131nda destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunabildi\u011fi seviye) ile 104-105 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) aras\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Nisan sonundaki zirve 107 dolara yak\u0131nd\u0131. 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na ini\u015f, 95-96 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 hedefe koyabilir; bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ise fiyatlar\u0131 90 dolara do\u011fru itebilir. Baz\u0131 tahminler y\u0131l sonuna kadar 80 dolar\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Jeopolitik Risk Azal\u0131nca D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/h3>\n

May\u0131s 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla tablo, jeopolitik korkudan \u00e7ok dengeli temel ko\u015fullara (arz-talep dengesi gibi ana dinamikler) dayan\u0131yor; bu nedenle WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunuyor. Son EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporu k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin 104,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n OPEC+ d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretimde (OPEC+ d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimi) istikrarl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f var. Bu denge, ham petrol\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde dar bir bantta tuttu.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) 2025 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizindeki zirvelerden gerilemesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) \u015fu anda 28 civar\u0131nda; ge\u00e7en ilkbahardaki belirsizlikte s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen 40 \u00fczeri seviyelere g\u00f6re belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Ani arz \u015foku (piyasaya bir anda daha az petrol gelmesi) korkusu azald\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha ucuzlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu ortam, prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7eren stratejiler (prim: opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen\/elde edilen bedel) i\u00e7in uygun. Piyasa yatay kalmaya e\u011filimliyken, 77-87 dolar beklenen band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u201cstrangle\u201d ya da \u201ciron condor\u201d (fiyat\u0131n belli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynayan opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) kurmak, ekonomik veriler sindirilirken prim toplaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. \u0130\u015flemin mant\u0131\u011f\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki sert oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrolde y\u00f6n yeniden \u00e7iziliyor: \u0130ran-ABD taslak anla\u015fma sinyaliyle WTI 101\u2019den 100 alt\u0131na indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gev\u015ferse arz endi\u015fesi azal\u0131r; 95-96 destek, 90-80 senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47221\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}