\u0130ran bas\u0131n\u0131, Al-Arabiya\u2019ya dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde Pakistan arabuluculu\u011fuyla ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n nihai tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Resm\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n saatler i\u00e7inde gelebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Haberdeki taslakta derhal y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girecek, kapsaml\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes yer al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca iki taraf\u0131n da altyap\u0131y\u0131 (enerji tesisleri, boru hatlar\u0131, limanlar, ileti\u015fim a\u011flar\u0131 gibi kritik sistemler) hedef almama taahh\u00fcd\u00fc bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Tasla\u011f\u0131n, Basra K\u00f6rfezi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u201cserbest seyr\u00fcseferi\u201d (gemilerin engellenmeden ge\u00e7i\u015f yapabilmesi) garanti etti\u011fi bildiriliyor. Bunun, ortak bir izleme mekanizmas\u0131yla (taraflar\u0131n birlikte denetledi\u011fi takip ve do\u011frulama sistemi) kontrol edilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Taslakta, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uyumuna (anla\u015fma \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 yerine getirmesine) ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kademeli kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclememi\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131klara ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yedi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 haberi, ham petrol i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir sinyal. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kademeli kalkmas\u0131, aylar i\u00e7inde \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnde 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn yeniden piyasaya d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Brent ve WTI vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (ileri tarihte teslimat\/fiyat \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayan\/koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 hak) bakabilir. Brent ve WTI \u015fu s\u0131ralar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasadaki \u00f6nemli bir jeopolitik risk primi (fiyatlara eklenen belirsizlik\/\u00e7at\u0131\u015fma pay\u0131) ortadan kalkmak \u00fczere. D\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, VIX endeksini (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/korku g\u00f6stergesi) 18 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviyesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bunu, oynakl\u0131k endeksleri \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyattan uzak, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi zor seviyelerde) al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
2025 boyunca artan gerilimler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu; \u015fimdi bu deste\u011fin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2015\u2019teki JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131 (\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131) sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n takip eden aylarda %30\u2019dan fazla gerilemesine katk\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. \u015eimdi de benzer, ancak muhtemelen daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca sava\u015f riskini fiyatlayan baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde zay\u0131fl\u0131k beklenmeli. Savunma y\u00fcklenicisi \u015firket hisseleri k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir; savunma ETF\u2019leri (bir endeksi\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) \u00fczerine sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde gemiler i\u00e7in riskin azalmas\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sigorta maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; ancak \u201csava\u015f primi\u201d ortadan kalkt\u0131k\u00e7a tanker navlunlar\u0131 (ta\u015f\u0131ma \u00fccretleri) da gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Son dakika: \u0130ran bas\u0131n\u0131, Pakistan arabuluculu\u011fuyla ABD-\u0130ran nihai tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fini yazd\u0131. Ate\u015fkes, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de serbest seyr\u00fcsefer ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kademeli kalk\u0131\u015f\u0131 masada; petrol ve risk primi d\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47218"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47218\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}