ABD, 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonolar\u0131n\u0131 (Treasury bill: ABD\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma senedi) ihalede %3,61 bile\u015fik faizle satt\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki 4 haftal\u0131k bono ihalesi %3,605\u2019te sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
4 haftal\u0131k bonoda faizin %3,61\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gidece\u011fi beklentisini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu hafif art\u0131\u015f, \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d beklentisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor (higher for longer: faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131). Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, faiz t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin (derivatives: de\u011ferini faiz gibi ba\u015fka bir g\u00f6stergeden alan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesini gerektiriyor. \u00d6zellikle SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. SOFR, ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizidir (SOFR: bankalar\u0131n Hazine tahvilleri teminatl\u0131 gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi; Fed\u2019in takip etti\u011fi referanslardan). CME FedWatch Tool (FedWatch: piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bekledi\u011fi faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) art\u0131k bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45\u2019in alt\u0131na indiriyor; ge\u00e7en hafta bu oran %60\u2019t\u0131. Bu tabloda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu strateji, Fed\u2019in beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/indirimi yapmadan beklemesi (on hold: faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden beklemesi) halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Makro veriler de Fed\u2019in daha temkinli kalabilece\u011fini destekliyor. Son istihdam raporunda 210 bin yeni istihdam eklendi. Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (core inflation: enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,1 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Bu durum, beklenen faiz indirimlerinin s\u00fcrekli \u00f6telenmesine neden olan diren\u00e7li tabloya benziyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) riski art\u0131yor. Bu nedenle volatiliteye dayal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler ilgi \u00e7ekiyor. VIX endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) son haftalarda 13 civar\u0131ndaki diplerden 16\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. S&P 500\u2019de \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f opsiyonu) almak, faiz endi\u015fesi b\u00fcy\u00fcrse olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli koruma (hedge: riski azaltma i\u015flemi) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentilerindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Dolar endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckseldi. Bu nedenle, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan faydalanan t\u00fcrev stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin dolar\u0131n euroya kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (USD\/EUR call: dolar y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) daha cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
4 haftal\u0131k ABD bonosu faizi %3,61\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: \u201chigher for longer\u201d fiyatlan\u0131yor. Fed indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %45 alt\u0131na indi. SOFR call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, VIX\u2019le hedge ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47213\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}