ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Kansas City b\u00f6lgesine ili\u015fkin verileri, imalat faaliyetinin May\u0131s\u2019ta -9 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu seviye, \u00f6nceki aydaki -10\u2019a g\u00f6re y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Negatif de\u011fer, b\u00f6lgedeki toplam fabrika faaliyetinde daralmaya i\u015faret eder. May\u0131s verisi, \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla daralman\u0131n bir miktar hafifledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s imalat verisi -9 ile daralman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu seviye b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi i\u015faret eden e\u015fik de\u011ferin (genellikle 0) alt\u0131nda. Ancak Nisan\u2019daki -10\u2019a g\u00f6re k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir iyile\u015fme var. Bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, fakat zay\u0131flama h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n azalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f veri, son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporuyla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutulmu\u015f enflasyon) Nisan 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,1 seviyesinde kalmaya devam etti. Piyasada y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131 (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminats\u0131z repo faizini baz alan referans faiz; vadeli kontratlar da gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler) de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Piyasa, enflasyon tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015f olsa bile Fed\u2019in ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130malat hareketlerinden en do\u011frudan etkilenen sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerindeki (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren, bir endeksi\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden fon) opsiyonlara bak\u0131labilir. Koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131p satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; put ise satma hakk\u0131d\u0131r) olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Verideki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015fme ise al\u0131m (call) spreadi satmay\u0131 (call: alma hakk\u0131; spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131p satmak; satmak prim geliri toplamak anlam\u0131na gelir) prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu, 2025\u2019te daha \u00f6nceki Fed kararlar\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin ekonomiye yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki i\u015flem \u015fartlar\u0131na benzer bir tabloyu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr \u201czay\u0131fl\u0131k var ama k\u0131smi iyile\u015fme de var\u201d mesaj\u0131, piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyreden VIX endeksinde (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ani ekonomik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f bir portf\u00f6y i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed Kansas City imalat endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta -9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi: daralma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, h\u0131z kesiyor. Piyasa faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor; opsiyonlarda put\u2019la korunma, VIX call\u2019la \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}