Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden tepki verdikten sonra Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; 4.504 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,85 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ilgili geli\u015fmeleri izledi.<\/p>\n
Reuters, \u0130ranl\u0131 iki \u00fcst d\u00fczey kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Dini Lideri\u2019nin silah yap\u0131m\u0131na \u00e7ok yak\u0131n safl\u0131kta uranyumun \u00fclkede kalmas\u0131 talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Daha sonra bir \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili bu iddiay\u0131 Al Jazeera\u2019ya yalanlad\u0131. Tasnim ise Tahran\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 14 maddelik teklifine yan\u0131t niteli\u011findeki yeni ABD tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131 inceledi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi, 99,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ve bir ay\u0131 a\u015fan zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti; belirsizlik nedeniyle dolara talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti. Bu durum enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini destekledi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in Nisan ay\u0131 toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cgenel olarak\u201d y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve Orta Do\u011fu belirsizli\u011finin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden tutmay\u0131 gerektirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. \u201c\u00c7o\u011funluk\u201d ise enflasyon %2 hedefinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faizlerin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131) gerekebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerine g\u00f6re ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 209 bin oldu (beklenti 210 bin, \u00f6nceki 212 bin). ABD Bile\u015fik PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: ekonomik faaliyet nabz\u0131) 51,7 seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130malat PMI 54,5\u2019ten 55,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi, Hizmet PMI 51,0\u2019dan 50,9\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat, 50 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcnlerin ortalama fiyat\u0131) alt\u0131nda. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.370 dolar civar\u0131nda. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 40,51; ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trend g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) yakla\u015f\u0131k 20. Diren\u00e7 4.677, ard\u0131ndan 4.796 dolar; destek 4.370 dolar.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi alt\u0131n yeni zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrederken, t\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) piyasas\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) dikkate almak zorunda. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 2025\u2019te rekor 1.037 tona ula\u015farak piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan destek) sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu zemin nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften pay almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir; b\u00f6ylece risklerini \u00f6dedikleri primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f olurlar.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tablo h\u00e2l\u00e2 kritik bir belirleyici. K\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor hareketler yaratabilir. Opsiyon straddle stratejisi (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma), GVZ endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 19 civar\u0131nda; bu, tarihsel ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu durum opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ancak enflasyon ve Fed politikas\u0131 konusunda piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda ani ters hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek prim \u00f6denmesi gerekebilir.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) kullananlar i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss: zarar belirli seviyeyi a\u015f\u0131nca pozisyonu kapatma emri) \u00f6nemli. Ayr\u0131ca vadeli kontratlar, enflasyon ve kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6y riskini dengelemek (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in ters pozisyon almak) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir. Genel sonu\u00e7: Fed\u2019in ad\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli olsa da, enflasyon ve istikrara dair endi\u015feler alt\u0131na destek veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131! XAU\/USD 4.504 dolara gerileyip %0,85 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, y\u00fcksek petrol ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f sinyali izleniyor. Opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47210\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}