ABD EIA (Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi) verilerine g\u00f6re, 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten haftada do\u011fal gaz depolamas\u0131 **101 Bcf** artt\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi **96 Bcf** idi.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan art\u0131\u015f beklentinin **5 Bcf** \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde depolara beklenenden fazla gaz bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na (depolama enjeksiyonu: yer alt\u0131 depolar\u0131na gaz eklenmesi) i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde olanlar\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak gerekiyor. 15 May\u0131s tarihli depolama raporunda **101 Bcf**\u2019lik enjeksiyon a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f, piyasan\u0131n **96 Bcf** beklentisini a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f, sonraki haftalarda fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2026 sonunda da benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var; stoklar zaten y\u00fcksek. Mevcut do\u011fal gaz depolamas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k **2.650 Bcf** seviyesinde. Bu, **son 5 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n %25\u2019ten fazla \u00fczerinde** ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek. ABD **kuru gaz \u00fcretimi** (i\u015flenip nemi ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, boru hatt\u0131na uygun do\u011fal gaz) da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; g\u00fcnl\u00fck **103 Bcf** \u00fczerinde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Talep taraf\u0131 bu arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 (arz\u0131n talebi a\u015fmas\u0131) eritecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in hava tahminleri ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131klara i\u015faret ediyor; bu da elektrik santrallerinden kaynaklanan erken d\u00f6nem **so\u011futma talebini** (klima kullan\u0131m\u0131yla artan elektrik ve dolayl\u0131 olarak gaz talebi) s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. **LNG ihracat\u0131** (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz\u0131n gemiyle ihra\u00e7 edilmesi) istikrarl\u0131 olsa da, y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim ve zay\u0131f i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim birle\u015fimini dengelemeye yetmeyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, **uzun pozisyon** (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131rken temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Fiyat\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131 veya d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Temmuz vadeli **NGN26** kontrat\u0131nda **kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak** (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcndeki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m opsiyonu; satmak prim geliri sa\u011flar). Ayr\u0131ca **sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak** (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) Haziran\u2019a do\u011fru olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Haziran sonu i\u00e7in beklenmedik s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131 izlenmeli; bu durum g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Meksika K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde erken kas\u0131rga hareketlili\u011fi gibi \u00fcretimi aksatacak geli\u015fmeler de fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu nedenle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde **s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi** (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan emirler ve pozisyon boyutu kontrol\u00fc) kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EIA s\u00fcrprizi: Do\u011fal gaz enjeksiyonu 101 Bcf ile beklentiyi 5 Bcf a\u015ft\u0131. Stoklar 2.650 Bcf, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %25+ \u00fczerinde; \u00fcretim 103 Bcf\/g\u00fcn; \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 hava bask\u0131s\u0131. OTM call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/put, risk: s\u0131cak hava-kas\u0131rga.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}