Macar varl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki pozisyonlar\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde birikmi\u015f i\u015flemleri) se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor. Piyasalar \u015fimdi Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Magyar Nemzeti Bank \u2013 MNB) bir sonraki faiz karar\u0131na odakland\u0131. Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet, forintin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131ndansa bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesini (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131) \u00f6nceliklendiriyor ve mali disiplinle (b\u00fct\u00e7eyi s\u0131k\u0131 tutarak) daha uzun vadeli tahvil talebi olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Beklenti, MNB politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bunun bir nedeni, daha s\u0131k\u0131 maliye planlar\u0131n\u0131n (b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan planlar) ek parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilecek olmas\u0131. AB ile bir finansman anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n da yak\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Hazine ve Maliye, risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn (\u00fclke riskinin azalmas\u0131) keskin bir forint y\u00fckseli\u015finden ziyade daha ucuz bor\u00e7lanma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Politika hedefi, enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cfaiz fark\u0131 getirisi\u201d arayan giri\u015fleri (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiriyi toplama) \u00e7ekmek de\u011fil; mali disiplinle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201cvade primi\u201d (uzun vadeli tahvil faizinin, k\u0131sa vadeli faize g\u00f6re ekstra getiri talebi) sa\u011flamak.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan karar, piyasalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerden uzun vadeye (duration: faiz de\u011fi\u015fimine duyarl\u0131l\u0131k, yani daha uzun vadeli tahvil riskine) kay\u0131p kaymayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test edecek. MNB yak\u0131n zamanda, d\u00f6viz swaplar\u0131nda (iki para birimi aras\u0131nda belirli vadede takas i\u015flemi) uygulanan faizi s\u00fcrpriz bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; gerek\u00e7e olarak daha iyi piyasa ve likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 (nakde ve i\u015fleme kolay eri\u015fimi) g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
At\u0131f yap\u0131lan veriler, forintin carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinde (bu i\u015flemlerin kapanmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa (CEE) para birimlerinin en zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6steren gruplar aras\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcrerse, k\u0131sa vadede yeterli \u201creel faiz tamponu\u201d (enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra kalan faiz avantaj\u0131) korunmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekli oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimindense daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahvil faizlerini tercih etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yledi. Bu, daha zay\u0131f forinti tolere edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Para birimini destekleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan uzakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, HUF\u2019da (Macar forinti) de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, forintteki k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Macar forinti bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaten g\u00f6sterdi ve yak\u0131n zamanda euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 400 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. MNB politika faizi %6,75 iken son enflasyon verisi %4,8. Bu tablo, reel faiz tamponunun eskisi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Aradaki fark\u0131n daralmas\u0131, daha \u00f6nce para birimini destekleyen carry trade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan forinti daha az cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler carry trade\u2019in \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor; forint bu y\u0131l, Polonya zlotisi gibi b\u00f6lgedeki benzer para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131. 2025 boyunca s\u00fcren b\u00fct\u00e7e s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasalar\u0131n somut ad\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar yeni mali s\u00f6zlere temkinli yakla\u015fmas\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Beklenen AB finansman anla\u015fmas\u0131nda gecikme olursa, para birimi \u00fczerindeki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir \u201copsiyon\u201d stratejisi (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli kurdan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) EUR\/HUF kurunun y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynamak olabilir; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 405-410 band\u0131 hedeflenebilir. EUR\/HUF al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: kuru belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, forintteki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken azami riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n para biriminin son performans\u0131na fazla m\u00fcdahil g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesi nedeniyle bu yakla\u015f\u0131m daha temkinli say\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 Macar varl\u0131klar\u0131nda pozisyonlar \u015fi\u015fti; g\u00f6zler MNB faiz karar\u0131nda. Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc forintten \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahvil faizini istiyor. Carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrken EUR\/HUF\u2019da 405-410 senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47206\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}