USD\/JPY 159,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (devletin piyasaya girerek kuru geri \u00e7evirmesi) riski nedeniyle 160,00 seviyesi yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s PMI verileri, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bile\u015fik PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 daralma) 1,1 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 51,1\u2019e geriledi ve son be\u015f ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Hizmetlerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme duraksad\u0131, imalatta b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyelerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Junko Koeda, y\u00fcksek enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 politika faizinin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) uygun bir h\u0131zda art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kazuyuki Masu ise veriler net bir bozulma g\u00f6stermiyorsa faizin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en erken a\u015famada y\u00fckseltilmesini destekledi.<\/p>\n
Koeda ve Masu, nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 6\u2019ya 3 \u00e7o\u011funlukla oy kulland\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye\u2014Nakagawa Junko, Takata Hajime ve Tamura Naoki\u2014s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 hale getirme) lehine kar\u015f\u0131 oy verdi.<\/p>\n
Swap (faiz takas\u0131; piyasan\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz beklentisini g\u00f6steren t\u00fcrev i\u015flem) fiyatlamas\u0131, 16 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131rd\u0131. <\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 159,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ana neden, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi tehdidi. Bu durum paritenin 160,00 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine yerle\u015fmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve bu seviyeyi net bir tavan haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda benzer seviyelerde yetkililer yeni savunmak i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kur 160 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde devreye girmi\u015f, bu seviyenin onlar i\u00e7in kritik bir \u00e7izgi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu \u00f6rnek, 160 civar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen y\u00f6n\u00fcnde destek verebilece\u011fi beklentisi de art\u0131yor; kurul \u00fcyelerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtiyor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,4 seviyesinde ve bu oran merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik gerek\u00e7esi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Swap piyasas\u0131 da 16 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini daha fazla fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde olan; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f gerektiren) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak veya \u201cbear call spread\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7la, belirli aral\u0131\u011fa risk ta\u015f\u0131yan; bir al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu alarak kurulan) stratejilerde 160,00 ve \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, m\u00fcdahale riski ve BoJ\u2019un \u015fahinle\u015fmesiyle paritenin 160,00 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131nan gelir) toplayabilir. Bu yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) da piyasa endi\u015fesi nedeniyle y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket arayanlar i\u00e7in, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. BoJ faiz art\u0131r\u0131rsa yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r ve bu pozisyon bundan faydalanabilir. Risk, opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159\u2019da; 160 e\u015fi\u011fi m\u00fcdahale riskiyle \u201ctavan\u201d olabilir. PMI ivme kaybederken BoJ \u00fcyeleri \u015fahinle\u015fiyor. Swaplar 16 Haziran\u2019da 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; opsiyonda 160 \u00fcst\u00fc call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47204\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}