ABD\u2019de S&P Global \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi) May\u0131s\u2019ta 55,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Beklenti 54\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
PMI\u2019\u0131n 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131, imalat faaliyetinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder. May\u0131s verisi, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ait 55,3\u2019l\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc imalat PMI verisi, ABD ekonomisinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ivmeye sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, belirgin bir yava\u015flama endi\u015felerinin abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle 2025 sonundaki daha zay\u0131f enflasyon verileri sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenen \u201cyak\u0131nda faiz indirimi\u201d beklentisi zay\u0131flayabilir. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasadaki faiz beklentilerini, \u00f6zellikle vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re, piyasada Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz indirimi ihtimali erken i\u015flemlerde %45\u2019ten %30\u2019un alt\u0131na geriledi. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ilerideki faiz seviyesine y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r\u201d senaryosuna uygun pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 \u00e7arpanlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck F\/K oran\u0131 (forward P\/E: \u015firketlerin beklenen k\u00e2rlar\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplanan de\u011ferleme g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede. Bu nedenle SPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskten korunma ya da VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. VIX (ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 13,5 ile g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f sergilemesi genelde ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyicidir. Dolar endeksi DXY (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) son haftalarda 105 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta hareket ediyor; bu haber yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi tetikleyebilir. Dolar i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya euro gibi para birimlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131na oynayan opsiyon) ile dolar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Rapor, sanayi emtialar\u0131na talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na da i\u015faret ediyor. Ekonomik aktivitenin \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi olan bak\u0131r fiyat\u0131 bu sabah %1,5 y\u00fckselerek pound ba\u015f\u0131na 4,70 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu PMI verisi, \u00fcreticilerin hammadde al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in sanayi metalleri veya enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde (fiyat\u0131 bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) uzun pozisyonlar (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PMI: ABD imalat\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta 55,3\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131 (beklenti 54). Fed\u2019in erken faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. Hissede \u00e7arpan bask\u0131s\u0131, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; emtialarda \u00f6zellikle bak\u0131rda talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47200\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}