ABD\u2019de May\u0131s ay\u0131 S&P Global Hizmetler PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyetin art\u0131p azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren anket bazl\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) 50,9 oldu. Bu de\u011fer, 51 olan beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki de\u011ferler hizmet faaliyetinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler daralmaya i\u015faret eder. Endeks 50,9 ile 50 e\u015fi\u011finin az \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son hizmet PMI verisinin 51 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 50,9 gelmesi, ekonomide s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor. Sapma k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olsa da \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc son d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi daha belirgin etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen, beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) haftalard\u0131r 14 civar\u0131nda sakin seyrediyordu; b\u00f6yle bir veri hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, endeksi 18-20 band\u0131na itebilecek t\u00fcrden bir tetikleyici olabilir. Bu da mevcut uzun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde) pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, SPX gibi ana endekslerde koruyucu \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) almay\u0131 daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2024 sonu\u20132025 ba\u015f\u0131nda PMI verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ilk yumu\u015fama sinyallerinin dalgal\u0131 bir piyasaya zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi and\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde erken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (ay\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri nedeniyle zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, yakla\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileriyle teyit gelmeden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 karamsar olmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na ve bunun faiz beklentilerine etkisine \u00e7evrildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi ihtimaline daha fazla fiyatlama yapabilir; bunu SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ABD\u2019de gecelik teminats\u0131z finansman faizine dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131; politika faizi beklentilerine duyarl\u0131) g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Fed yetkililerinden gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, son d\u00f6nemdeki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015ftan (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) bir ton de\u011fi\u015fimi olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls; tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 toplam istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda zay\u0131flama sinyali olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek. Daha zay\u0131f bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu PMI verisiyle birlikte yava\u015flayan ekonomi tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen 240 bin gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n benzeri gelirse, bu PMI verisi ge\u00e7ici bir sapma olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PMI: ABD May\u0131s Hizmetler PMI 50,9 ile beklenti 51\u2019in alt\u0131nda, e\u015fik \u00fcst\u00fcnde kald\u0131. So\u011fuma sinyali Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faiz etkisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken VIX ve opsiyonla korunma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47199\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}