S&P Global ABD Bile\u015fik PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi) May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 51,7 oldu.<\/p>\n
50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki de\u011ferler genel i\u015f faaliyetinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler ise azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s bile\u015fik PMI verisinin 51,7 gelmesi, ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, hem hizmet hem de imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor ve yak\u0131n vadeli resesyon (ekonomik daralma) endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn daha istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k sinyaliyle, geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle) pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin S&P 500\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya put spread satmak (sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla kurulan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u0130\u015f faaliyetinin s\u00fcrmesi genellikle \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin dengeli olmas\u0131 da hisse senetleri i\u00e7in daha elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n
51,7\u2019lik PMI, Nisan ay\u0131 istihdam raporuyla da uyumlu. Raporda 210 bin yeni istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisi de %3,6 ile bir miktar y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Bu tablo, ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimine gitme ihtimali zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (SOFR futures; ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizi \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren kontratlar) ile yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nabilir veya uzun vadeli ABD tahvillerine duyarl\u0131 TLT gibi ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi i\u00e7in bask\u0131 azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda volatilitenin (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131. VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (VIX futures; piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyen endeksin kontratlar\u0131) sat\u0131\u015f veya VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. VIX, genelde \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak an\u0131l\u0131r; veriler b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrpriz yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. 51,7\u2019lik PMI piyasay\u0131 rahatlatacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ancak yeni enflasyon endi\u015fesi yaratacak kadar da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda PMI verisi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015fesi artm\u0131\u015f, piyasada dalgalanma y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Mevcut veri, bu belirsizlik d\u00f6neminden sonra toparlanman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yeniden sa\u011flam zemine oturdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de S&P Global May\u0131s bile\u015fik PMI 51,7: \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Resesyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131rken Fed\u2019in erken faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; hisseler destekleniyor, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilir. ABD tahvil bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47198\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}