{"id":47193,"date":"2026-05-21T17:21:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T17:21:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/sterlin-zayif-pmilar-ve-ingiltere-swap-yeniden-fiyatlanmasi-endiselerinin-gorunumu-baskilamasiyla-13440-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T17:21:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T17:21:21","slug":"sterlin-zayif-pmilar-ve-ingiltere-swap-yeniden-fiyatlanmasi-endiselerinin-gorunumu-baskilamasiyla-13440-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sterlin-zayif-pmilar-ve-ingiltere-swap-yeniden-fiyatlanmasi-endiselerinin-gorunumu-baskilamasiyla-13440-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Sterlin, zay\u0131f PMI\u2019lar ve \u0130ngiltere swap yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 endi\u015felerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla 1,3440 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

GBP\/USD 1,3440 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Sterlin i\u00e7in riskler, \u0130ngiltere swap (faiz takas\u0131; gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren piyasa) e\u011frisinde yeniden fiyatlama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin politikalar\u0131nda daha \u201csola\u201d (daha fazla kamu harcamas\u0131 ve vergi) kayma ihtimaline ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere May\u0131s PMI verileri (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firketlerin yeni sipari\u015f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam\u0131na dayal\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik nab\u0131z g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde faaliyetin geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bile\u015fik PMI 4,1 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 48,5\u2019e indi; 13 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda (50 alt\u0131 daralma), beklenti 51,6 idi.<\/p>\n

Uk Activity Data Signals Downturn<\/h3>\n

Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 4,8 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 47,9\u2019a geriledi; beklenti 51,7 idi ve Ocak 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye. \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 53,7\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fmedi; beklenti 53,0 idi.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini 75 baz puandan 57 baz puana (baz puan: faizde 0,01 puan) indirdi. BOE, 2026\u2019da negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ekonominin kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00fcretim; talebin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc potansiyel GSYH\u2019nin %1,5 ila %1,7\u2019si aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veriyor.<\/p>\n

Sterlin, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3440 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. May\u0131s hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrpriz daralma (47,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) beklenen yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit etti. Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede Sterlin\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Zay\u0131f faaliyet verileri, Nisan enflasyon raporunu izledi: man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; genel enflasyon) %1,8\u2019e gerileyerek BOE hedefinin alt\u0131na indi. 1\u00c7 GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da %0,1\u2019e a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi. Bu g\u00f6stergeler ekonomide so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle piyasan\u0131n BOE\u2019nin gelecekte faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair mevcut fiyatlamas\u0131 iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Political And Rates Risks For Sterling<\/h3>\n

2024 sonundaki se\u00e7imden bu yana iktidarda olan \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden gelebilecek politika de\u011fi\u015fimleri de izleniyor. Kamu hizmetlerini finanse etmek i\u00e7in bir sonraki b\u00fct\u00e7ede servet ve kurumlar vergisinin art\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fine dair beklenti g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu siyasi belirsizlik Sterlin \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Swap piyasas\u0131 BOE faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l i\u00e7in 57 baz puana \u00e7ekti. 2025\u2019teki yava\u015flamada \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. BOE\u2019nin negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmini de dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu art\u0131r\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentilerin yak\u0131nda silinmesi olas\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f yapmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Bu ko\u015fullarda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f Sterlin senaryosuna pozisyon almak anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Temmuz vadeli, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3200 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten faydalanman\u0131n net bir yoludur. Bu strateji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar ve azami zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n

Sterlin opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ilerliyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete haz\u0131rlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread; daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) de de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, pozisyonun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in alt kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin alarm veriyor: GBP\/USD 1,3440\u2019ta zay\u0131f. May\u0131s PMI s\u00fcrpriz daralma (bile\u015fik 48,5; hizmet 47,9) BOE s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Swaplar 57 bp\u2019ye indi; \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi vergi\/harcama riski bask\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47193\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}