USD\/JPY 159 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olas\u0131 resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale (kamu otoritelerinin kurdaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi durdurmak i\u00e7in piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satmas\u0131) nedeniyle temkinli ve pariteyi 160\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131maya isteksiz. Piyasa, m\u00fcdahale riskini izlerken bu seviyede yatay seyir \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve ABD tahvil faizlerindeki (ABD devlet tahvillerinin getirisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Japon yenini destekliyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasalar, Ba\u015fbakan Takaichi d\u00f6neminde gelebilecek ek b\u00fct\u00e7eyi (y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ilave harcama\/gelir d\u00fczenlemesi) izliyor; bu ad\u0131m g\u00fcveni etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, ihracat\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %14,8 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi (mart: %11,5). Art\u0131\u015fta \u00e7ip (yar\u0131 iletken) talebi etkili oldu. \u0130thalattaki art\u0131\u015f ise Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan petrol al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla yava\u015flad\u0131; bu da beklentiyi a\u015fan bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) do\u011furdu.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziranda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Maliye politikas\u0131 (kamu harcama ve vergi politikas\u0131) istikrarl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa, yen destek bulabilir. Metinde ayr\u0131ca i\u00e7eri\u011fin yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme (yetkililerin kur hakk\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klama yaparak piyasay\u0131 etkilemesi) veya fiil\u00ee m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski y\u00fcksekken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar korunma (hedge) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Paran\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131, \u201czarar-k\u00e2r s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015ftan belli\u201d bir y\u00f6ntem olarak kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki kura g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) sat\u0131n almak tercih edilebilir. Bu opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda; bu, artan tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya i\u00e7in makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (genel ekonomik ko\u015fullar) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek veriyor. Ham petrol yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum BoJ\u2019un i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve yenin temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle USD\/JPY\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilme senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in \u201crisk reversal\u201d (bir opsiyonu satarak di\u011feri i\u00e7in prim finansman\u0131 sa\u011flama) stratejisi kullan\u0131labilir. Piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan bir USD al\u0131m opsiyonunu satarak elde edilen primle USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan bir yap\u0131 kurar. Bu yap\u0131lar\u0131n fiyatlamas\u0131, piyasada kurda bir \u201ctavan\u201d uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi artt\u0131k\u00e7a daha elveri\u015fli hale geldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159\u2019da tak\u0131ld\u0131: 160 e\u015fi\u011finde m\u00fcdahale korkusu i\u015ftah\u0131 kesiyor. D\u00fc\u015fen petrol ve ABD faizleri yene destek. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat\/ fazla BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k %11+ tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}