ABD\u2019de konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 (yap\u0131m\u0131na yeni ba\u015flanan konut say\u0131s\u0131) nisan ay\u0131nda 1,465 milyon oldu. Beklenti 1,41 milyondu.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda (bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) sonu\u00e7 beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Beklentiyi a\u015fan konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131, ekonominin tahmin edilenden daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, yak\u0131n vadede ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR futures; ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizine dayal\u0131, faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan kontratlar) faizin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki pozisyonlar izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomideki bu g\u00fc\u00e7, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu (borsa i\u00e7in destekleyici). Bu tablo, S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekler. 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen dalgalanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen bu istikrar sinyali, VIX endeksini (piyasa oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. SPX\u2019te (S&P 500 endeksinin opsiyon piyasas\u0131 sembol\u00fc) \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money put; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) prim geliri toplamak i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m haline geliyor.<\/p>\n
F\u0131rsat, do\u011frudan konut in\u015faat\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) bu ay %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. ETF (borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu; hisse gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) talep sinyallerine duyarl\u0131 \u015fekilde tepki verdi. XHB veya Lennar gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bu e\u011filime do\u011frudan maruz kalma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 beklenildi\u011fi gibi tepki verdi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi yeniden %4,6\u2019ya yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu hareket, getiriler e\u011frisine (yield curve; farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki tahvil faizlerinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) daha sert faiz indirimlerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Konut taraf\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, nisan ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisiyle birlikte geliyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,8\u2019de kalmaya devam etti. Bu seviye, Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde ve para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu iki veri birlikte, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d (higher for longer) senaryosunu en olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015feye yat\u0131rd\u0131: Nisan\u2019da 1,465 milyonla beklenti a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n faiz indirimi zorla\u015f\u0131rken SOFR \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201di fiyatl\u0131yor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6, S&P 500 ve XHB\u2019de iyimserlik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}