ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, 15 May\u0131s ile biten haftada 202,5 bin seviyesine geriledi. \u00d6nceki veri 203,75 bindi.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fim 1,25 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu. Bu veri, ilk ba\u015fvurular i\u00e7in d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamay\u0131 ifade ediyor (haftal\u0131k dalgalanmalar\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in son 4 haftan\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 al\u0131n\u0131r).<\/p>\n
\u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 202.500\u2019e inmesi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu (i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan talebinin g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu ortam) destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyreden bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ekonomideki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede sert bir yava\u015flama endi\u015fesini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00fcreci zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Nisan 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) enflasyonun %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasa y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi bekliyordu; ancak bu veri Temmuz\u2019da indirim ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tonunda (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli s\u00f6ylem) bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, piyasa beklentileri daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201ddi (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n duru\u015f) ve bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Beklenti de\u011fi\u015fti; 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na benzer bir alg\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Bu da yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisine dayal\u0131 i\u015flemlerin daha riskli olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 13 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k). Bu durum, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerini g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 politikay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde (faiz de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden daha \u00e7ok etkilenen) \u00f6rne\u011fin teknoloji hisselerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca ana endekslerde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan uzak seviyeli) al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i satmak (call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte al\u0131p satma) yatay piyasadan faydalanmaya y\u00f6nelik bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi 5 Haziran 2026\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisine \u00e7evrilecek. Bu verinin beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ya da zay\u0131f gelmesi, Fed beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na ve piyasalarda belirgin harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. Tahminden sapma, oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 202,5 bine indi: i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, %3,1 enflasyonla Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerini zorluyor; VIX d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}