Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti ve haftal\u0131k bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131p ya\u015fad\u0131. Y\u00fckseli\u015fler 4.580 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 4.455 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde zay\u0131f kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin son a\u015famada oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan geriledi. Trump, askeri se\u00e7ene\u011fin h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu belirtse de piyasa tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n (Fed \u00fcyelerinin faiz konusunda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren detayl\u0131 kay\u0131tlar) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini masada tutan mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 dengeledi. Ba\u015fl\u0131klardaki s\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verilerinin (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim ve hizmet faaliyetlerindeki e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren erken g\u00f6sterge) May\u0131s\u2019ta faaliyetlerin canl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. \u0130malat taraf\u0131nda hafif yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; veriler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
XAU\/USD 4.532 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyal verdi. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) orta seviyenin biraz alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama; trend ve momentum de\u011fi\u015fimini izler) pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 4.580 dolarda; ard\u0131ndan 4.650 dolar ve May\u0131s zirvesi olan 4.770 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131mlar\u0131n geldi\u011fi seviye) 4.455 dolarda; bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma 4.350 dolar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f sinyalleri ile \u015fahin Fed (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yatk\u0131n Fed) mesajlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir tablo vard\u0131. O tarihten sonra Fed ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etti. Bu art\u0131\u015flar, jeopolitik tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckselse bile, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir unsur haline geldi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortam, y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon ve yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile \u015fekilleniyor. Ge\u00e7en ay T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun ana g\u00f6stergesi) %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturdu. Bu durum, faiz geliri olmayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi d\u00fczenli faiz\/kupon getirisi \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar) i\u00e7in olumsuz bir fakt\u00f6r.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (GDP; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %1,6 ile beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi yava\u015flatmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu so\u011fuma, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ileride faiz indirimi olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da uzun vadede alt\u0131n i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur. Enflasyon-b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00e7eki\u015fmesi, alt\u0131n\u0131 bant i\u00e7inde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat\u0131n ya sert k\u0131r\u0131lma yapmas\u0131ndan ya da bantta kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerini (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak, bu y\u0131l ileride olas\u0131 faiz indirimi \u201cd\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201dne (Fed pivotu: Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015ftan gev\u015femeye y\u00f6nelmesi) erken y\u00f6n riski almadan pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. Di\u011fer yandan, \u201ciron condor\u201d gibi yap\u0131larla oynakl\u0131k satmak (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine\/bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan opsiyon stratejisi) alt\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131t r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan kalan kilit seviyeler h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemini koruyor; alt\u0131n yine 4.580 dolar direncinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Bu seviyenin net a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz indirimlerini daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilir. A\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 ise yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret eder ve Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015funun \u015fimdilik alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu teyit eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik bant s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: XAU\/USD 4.580 alt\u0131nda yatay, 4.455 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran mesaj\u0131 DXY\u2019yi bask\u0131lad\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131. Fed\/P\u0130M verileri y\u00f6n verecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47184","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47184\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}