Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3415 seviyesine geriledi. GBP\/USD paritesi, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131nca dolara talebin artmas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Dini Lideri, silah yap\u0131m\u0131na yak\u0131n safl\u0131ktaki uranyumun \u0130ran\u2019da kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu, ABD\u2019nin \u201cherhangi bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in \u0130ran uranyum zenginle\u015ftirmeyi b\u0131rakmal\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri (endeksin gelecekteki seviyesine ili\u015fkin al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kontratlar\u0131) \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.400\u2019e geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepeti kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 99,30 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fmada \u201cson a\u015famalarda\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesiyle piyasa havas\u0131 iyile\u015fmi\u015fti. Ancak anla\u015fmaya dair beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fince bu hareket tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc (ilk) Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k S&P Global PMI verilerinin (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firketlerin yeni sipari\u015f ve \u00fcretim e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) zay\u0131f gelmesi sonras\u0131 da bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Bile\u015fik PMI 52,6\u2019dan 48,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti 51,7 idi. 50,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler ekonomide daralmaya i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan ay\u0131 Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde, May\u0131s 2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin alg\u0131n\u0131n aniden tersine d\u00f6nmesi, piyasalarda klasik \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d hareketini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) tetiklemi\u015fti. Anla\u015fma beklentilerinin bozulmas\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu tablo, jeopolitik haberlerin piyasa dengesini ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini (risk art\u0131nca de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filimindeki para birimleri) bask\u0131lad\u0131; sterlin de zay\u0131f i\u00e7 verilerle zaten zorlan\u0131yordu. May\u0131s 2025\u2019te Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 48,5\u2019in alt\u0131na inerek daralma b\u00f6lgesine d\u00fc\u015fmesi, bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3400\u2019e do\u011fru \u00e7ekti. Ayn\u0131 hafta GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019den fazla artmas\u0131, sert harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n lehine oldu.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda sterlin 1,3550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ancak ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm net de\u011fil. Nisan 2026 enflasyonu %3,1\u2019de kal\u0131nca \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz kararlar\u0131 zorla\u015f\u0131yor. En son PMI 51,2\u2019ye toparlansa da ekonomide yeniden zay\u0131flama sinyali sterlini tekrar k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getirebilir. ABD-\u0130ran dosyas\u0131 ise \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz; bu da piyasada \u201cgizli\u201d bir oynakl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak duruyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3450 civar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (opsiyonda \u00f6nceden belirlenen al\u0131m-sat\u0131m seviyesi) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; vadesi 4\u20136 hafta olabilir. Bu strateji, riskin ba\u015ftan belli oldu\u011fu (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) bir y\u00f6ntemle olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. Opsiyon maliyetinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n \u015fu an b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklemedi\u011fine (rehavet) i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda DXY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. May\u0131s 2025\u2019te DXY 99,30\u2019a y\u00fckseldikten sonra 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funlukla 98,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti (dar bantta hareket). DXY\u2019de call pozisyonu, \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in etkili bir korunma (hedge; portf\u00f6y\u00fc ters hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi izlenecek ana ba\u015fl\u0131klar olacak. Bu verilerde ciddi sapma, beklenen dalgalanman\u0131n tetikleyicisi olabilir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen, man\u015fetlere ba\u011fl\u0131 sert hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc: ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fma umudu s\u00f6n\u00fcnce dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, GBP\/USD 1,3415\u2019e geriledi. Zay\u0131f \u0130ngiltere PMI bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken g\u00f6zler perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47182"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47182\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}