Uluslararas\u0131 Al\u00fcminyum Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (International Aluminium Institute) verilerine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama birincil al\u00fcminyum (ham al\u00fcminyum) \u00fcretimi nisan ay\u0131nda 197,4 bin tona geriledi. Ayl\u0131k toplam \u00fcretim bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re %5,3, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re %2 d\u00fc\u015ferek 5,92 milyon tona indi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretimi nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %3 azalarak 3,7 milyon tona geriledi. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fcretim 14,7 milyon tona ula\u015ft\u0131; bu seviye y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,6 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
En sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00dcretim ayl\u0131k bazda %29, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %34,6 d\u00fc\u015ferek 330 bin tona indi. Bu, Kas\u0131m 2013\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye oldu.<\/p>\n
Gerileme, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u00fcretimin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi. Al\u00fcmina (al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretiminde ara hammadde) arz\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu yerine ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelere y\u00f6nlendirildi; bu da aksakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak \u00c7in\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli \u00fcretimini destekledi.<\/p>\n
Nisan verileri, k\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir arz \u015foku (piyasaya gelen \u00fcr\u00fcn miktar\u0131nda ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u015fokun ana nedeni, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim kesintileri. 2013\u2019ten bu yana K\u00f6rfez\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha y\u00fcksek al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu iyimser beklenti (fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) piyasaya da yans\u0131yor. Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019nda (LME) al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na 2.700 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, bu seviye bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Hareket, borsa stoklar\u0131n\u0131n (LME depolar\u0131nda kay\u0131tl\u0131 fiziki stok) \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere gerilemesiyle destekleniyor; LME\u2019ye kay\u0131tl\u0131 depo stoklar\u0131 450 bin tonun belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na indi. Stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, yeni bir arz kesintisini kar\u015f\u0131layacak tamponun zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik etkenler nedeniyle fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. LME veya COMEX s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalan\u0131rken arz sorunu aniden hafiflerse zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k opsiyon primlerini (bu hakk\u0131n maliyeti) art\u0131rsa da sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ihtimali bu maliyeti anlaml\u0131 k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2018\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir Rus \u00fcreticiye yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ko\u015fullar farkl\u0131 olsa da arz kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131n fiyatlara \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131yabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; benzer h\u0131zda fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan \u00c7in taraf\u0131 da izlenmeli. \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretim g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 seyrederken, \u00c7inli izabehaneler (al\u00fcminyum eritme ve \u00fcretim tesisleri) Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirilen al\u00fcminay\u0131 kullan\u0131yor. Bu durum k\u00fcresel a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve fiyatlar\u0131n ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi bask\u0131layabilir. Bu da \u201cspread\u201d i\u015flemlerinde (iki piyasa\/kontrat aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131na oynama) f\u0131rsat yaratabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Bat\u0131 piyasas\u0131 kontratlar\u0131nda primin (baz fiyata g\u00f6re ek fiyat) \u015eanghay Vadeli \u0130\u015flem Borsas\u0131\u2019na (SHFE) g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Al\u00fcminyumda arz \u015foku: Nisan\u2019da k\u00fcresel \u00fcretim %5,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de 2013\u2019ten beri en sert gerileme var. LME 2.700$\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken stoklar dipte; volatilite ve opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47175\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}