\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretimindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay seyretti. USD\/CHF, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7900 \u00fczerindeki \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra 0,7870 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de fabrika \u00fcretimi, 2025\u2019in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ilk \u00e7eyrekte %7,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %0,7 olmu\u015ftu. Piyasa beklentisi ise %0,5 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n
\u0130la\u00e7 \u00fcretimi %20 gerilerken, ula\u015f\u0131m ekipmanlar\u0131 \u00fcretimi %15 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Elektrik arz\u0131 %6 azal\u0131rken, metal \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcretimi %8,8 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemdeki bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi para birimi ve varl\u0131klara talep) azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak S&P Global PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firketlerin yeni sipari\u015f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam e\u011filimlerini \u00f6l\u00e7en erken d\u00f6nem ekonomik g\u00f6sterge) \u00f6nc\u00fc verileri vard\u0131. Bu verilerin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomi \u00fczerindeki etkilerine dair sinyal vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, \u00f6zellikle ila\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki %20\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisinin temelini zorlamas\u0131 nedeniyle dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Kimya-ila\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %35\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir daralma, resesyon (ekonomide belirgin ve yayg\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme) riskine i\u015faret edebilir. 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda buna benzer fakat daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00fcretim zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan ekonomik durgunluk d\u00f6nemi gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) raporu g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d politikaya (faiz indirimi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen daha yumu\u015fak duru\u015f) kayma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. SNB, Mart 2024\u2019te ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nden kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in faiz indiren ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biri olmu\u015ftu. Yeni veriler, yaz sonuna do\u011fru yeni bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini art\u0131rabilir; bu da frang\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya do\u011frudan frang\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131na oynayan \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Frangda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha ucuz hale getiriyor. Opsiyonlar, kur aleyhe giderse zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya da imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim s\u00fcrerken frang\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi. Ani bir t\u0131rmanma, sermayenin CHF\u2019ye y\u00f6nelmesine ve zay\u0131f verinin etkisinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine geri planda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle opsiyonla risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak mevcut ortamda daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda da yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken ba\u015fl\u0131k, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak S&P Global PMI \u00f6nc\u00fc verileri. Beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir ve USD\/CHF paritesinde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) yukar\u0131 hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek ikinci bir etken yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 reaksiyon: \u0130svi\u00e7re sanayi \u00fcretimi ilk \u00e7eyrekte %7,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; USD\/CHF 0,7870\u2019te yatay. \u0130la\u00e7ta %20 daralma SNB\u2019yi g\u00fcvercine itebilir; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47169\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}