USD\/JPY ikinci g\u00fcnde de sakin kald\u0131 ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa saatlerinde 158,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 54,5 seviyesindeydi; bu, n\u00f6tr-pozitif bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etti. Bu tablo, parite son zirvelerin alt\u0131nda yatay seyrederken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin korundu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Fiyat hareketi, d\u00fc\u015fen bir kanal\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli iki \u00e7izgi aras\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti; parite \u201ckritik e\u015fik\u201d b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n durdu. Kanal\u0131n \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, yukar\u0131 trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit edebilir. Bu b\u00f6lgeden geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi ise yatay bir d\u00f6neme yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Parite yukar\u0131 k\u0131rarsa, 30 Nisan\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen 22 ay\u0131n zirvesi 160,73 hedeflenebilir. Sonraki seviye, Temmuz 2024\u2019teki 162,00 ile tarihi zirve olur.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ilk destek 158,51\u2019deki dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA, ard\u0131ndan 158,23\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA. Her ikisinin alt\u0131na inilmesi, pariteyi 6 May\u0131s\u2019taki yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n dibi 155,04\u2019e ve ard\u0131ndan kanal taban\u0131na yak\u0131n 153,80\u2019e \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleniyorsa, Haziran veya Temmuz 2026 vadeli; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (opsiyonu kullanma fiyat\u0131) 160,00 ya da 161,00 civar\u0131nda olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Nisan 2026 ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi (Core CPI: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) destekledi; veri %2,9 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6teledi. Bu zemin dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na ve y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na destek verir.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen temkinli olmak gerekir; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bulunuyor. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda, parite 160 seviyesini a\u015f\u0131nca Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sert m\u00fcdahaleleriyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler hat\u0131rlan\u0131r. Bu nedenle uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar dikkatle y\u00f6netilmeli; ani ve sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n belirsizli\u011fi nedeniyle, oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,0\u2019den %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, piyasada normalden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu ortamda uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda call+put alma) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call+put alma) stratejileri, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 i\u015flemeye imk\u00e2n verebilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan parite direnci a\u015famazsa, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 158,23\u2019e geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bekleyenler, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almay\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spread\u2019i (bear call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call almak; yatay\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte kazan\u00e7 hedefler) kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu hareketli ortalaman\u0131n net \u015fekilde alt\u0131na inilmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ay ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 155,00 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019da kritik e\u015fikte: EMA\u2019lar \u00fcst\u00fcnde, RSI 54,5 ile ivme korunuyor. Kanal k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 160,73-162 hedef; tutunamazsa 158,51\/158,23 alt\u0131 155-153,80 riski. Oynakl\u0131k %9,5; straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. M\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47168\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}