Fransa\u2019n\u0131n HCOB \u0130malat PMI verisi (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi) may\u0131sta 48,9 oldu. Beklenti 52,5 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
50\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki de\u011fer, imalat faaliyetinde daralma (\u00fcretimde gerileme) anlam\u0131na gelir. May\u0131s verisi, tahminin 3,6 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklenen 52,5 seviyesinden bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck sapma, Frans\u0131z imalat\u0131nda beklenmedik bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor ve piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bunu, Frans\u0131z hisse senetlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin CAC 40 endeksi \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu (endeks d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) almak gibi. Bu, 2024 sonundaki belirsizlik d\u00f6neminden bu yana PMI tahminlerine kar\u015f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck sapma.<\/p>\n
Fransa gibi \u00e7ekirdek bir ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve euro \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n euroda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131; ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki yava\u015flamada g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,05 seviyesinin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden hedeflenmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) erken i\u015flemlerde %10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bu yeni belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131f veri, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politika rotas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve bu yaz yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa indiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha temkinli bir ECB beklentisini fiyatlamas\u0131yla sabit getirili piyasalarda (tahvil gibi d\u00fczenli faiz geliri sa\u011flayan varl\u0131klar) y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz. Frans\u0131z devlet tahvillerinde (OAT) vadeli i\u015flem (future; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc getirilerin\/faizlerin (tahvil faizi) d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, Fransa\u2019ya y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan sanayi ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131) \u015firketlerin belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenir. Olas\u0131 bir g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemi (iki piyasay\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 pozisyonla f\u0131rsat arama), CAC 40\u2019ta k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131rken Almanya\u2019n\u0131n DAX endeksinde uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131mak olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, genel Avrupa alg\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 denge sa\u011flarken bug\u00fcnk\u00fc verinin i\u015faret etti\u011fi Fransa kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrprizin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Euro Stoxx 50 oynakl\u0131k endeksinde (VSTOXX) y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in VSTOXX call opsiyonlar\u0131 (endeks y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, \u00f6zellikle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftada a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nemli Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde koruma (hedge; olumsuz fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok PMI: Fransa HCOB \u0130malat PMI may\u0131sta 48,9\u2019a indi; beklenti 52,5\u2019ti. 50 alt\u0131 daralma sinyali. Euro\u2019da bask\u0131, oynakl\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f, ECB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 zay\u0131flar; hisse-tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda savunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47167\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}