Hollanda\u2019da mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (takvim etkileri temizlenmi\u015f) \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Nisan\u2019da %3,9 oldu. <\/p>\n
Bu oran, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %4,0 seviyesine k\u0131yasla geriledi.<\/p>\n
Hollanda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ana ekonomilerinden birinde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bulman\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dair k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. Bu veri tek ba\u015f\u0131na, ekonomide dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor ve bu da enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) daha \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d yani kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen bir seviyede kalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verebilir. Bu durum, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmadan\/indirmeden bekleme) mesajlar\u0131 veren Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) i\u00e7in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizlerin izleyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fc) daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin faiz beklentilerimizi g\u00fcncellemek gerekiyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) h\u00e2l\u00e2 hedefin \u00fczerinde %2,7 seviyesindeyken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, en yak\u0131n vadeli Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (Euribor\u2019a dayal\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler) sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine yatk\u0131n) beklentileri geri \u00e7ekmek zorunda kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme Hollanda i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131 hisseleri i\u00e7in olumlu bir sinyal. Bu y\u00fczden AEX endeksi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Ancak ECB\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz indirimine mesafeli, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yatk\u0131n) bir tutum sergilemesi, genel Avrupa piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur. Bu da bir \u201cikili i\u015flem\u201d (pair trade: bir varl\u0131k al\u0131n\u0131rken di\u011ferinin sat\u0131lmas\u0131) fikrini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: AEX\u2019e al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131rken Euro Stoxx 50 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin daha az g\u00fcvercin olmas\u0131 Euro\u2019yu destekleyebilir. 2025\u2019teki yava\u015flamada, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ECB\u2019nin faizleri ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 indirmesini engelledi\u011fini ve bunun EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Euro\u2019da uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m) olu\u015fturmak f\u0131rsat olabilir; bunu basit al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla yapmak da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131 \u015feklindeki \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, Haziran\u2019daki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Ani hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ya da f\u0131rsat aramak i\u00e7in VSTOXX vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (Euro Stoxx 50 oynakl\u0131k endeksine dayal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) veya Euro Stoxx 50 \u00fczerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Hollanda\u2019da i\u015fsizlik Nisan\u2019da %3,9\u2019a indi: s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 enflasyonu inat\u00e7\u0131 k\u0131labilir. Bu tablo ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; euroyu destekleyip AEX\u2019i \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47158\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}