USD\/JPY, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin yeni bilgi beklemesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 159,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201cson a\u015famada\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesi 99,47\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan 99,20 civar\u0131nda hafif y\u00fckseldi. Trump\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131nda tamamlanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 endeksteki hareket duruldu.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. CME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n Fed faizi olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) verisine g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %51\u2019e geriledi; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %61,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ek b\u00fct\u00e7e, kamu maliyesi (devletin gelir-gider dengesi ve bor\u00e7lanma durumu) i\u00e7in endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japonya Devlet Tahvili (JGB) faizi %0,11 artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,77\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen %2,81\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/JPY, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) 158,37 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 55 civar\u0131nda. Destek 158,37\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 157,31\u2019de; diren\u00e7 160,73\u2019te izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fma a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rsa \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201dn\u0131n artmas\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131k yerine daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin azalmas\u0131yla dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 beklenebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer jeopolitik gerilimlerde tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine dair ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bir hafta i\u00e7inde %1\u20132 geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu nedenle 158,37 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, olumlu bir diplomatik sonu\u00e7 i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir pozisyon olurdu.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ise oda\u011f\u0131n yeniden Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ve dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d giri\u015flerine kaymas\u0131yla paritenin h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilirdi. Bu \u201canla\u015fma yok\u201d senaryosunda Nisan 2025 zirvesi 160,73 hedefe girebilir; USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015fi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in uygun bir ara\u00e7 olurdu. VIX endeksi (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak da bilinir) o d\u00f6nemde 19 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; bu da opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonun maliyeti) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pahal\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca o d\u00f6nemde yen \u00fczerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131, basit bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d senaryosunu zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yordu. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB faizinin May\u0131s 2025\u2019te %2,80\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n mali yap\u0131s\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131n derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyordu ve bu durum yenin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na neden oluyordu. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131ksa bile paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir taban olu\u015fturabilirdi.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik nedeniyle \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d odakl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olan uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 vadeyle hem call hem put almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket olursa iki y\u00f6nde de kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) mant\u0131kl\u0131 olurdu. B\u00f6ylece \u0130ran haberinin ard\u0131ndan fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin, sonucu do\u011fru tahmin etme ihtiyac\u0131 azal\u0131r. Benzer jeopolitik krizlerde, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 kur \u00e7iftlerinin tek seansta 200\u2013300 pip (d\u00f6vizde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin JPY \u00e7iftlerinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman 0,01) hareket edebildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik 159,00\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6zler ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde: Trump \u201cson a\u015fama\u201d dedi. DXY 99,20, Fed art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %51\u2019e indi. JGB faizi y\u00fckselirken 158,37 destek, 160,73 diren\u00e7; opsiyonda put\/call ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47156","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47156"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47156\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47156"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47156"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47156"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}