AUD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7150 civar\u0131na geriledi. Avustralya Dolar\u0131 (AUD), zay\u0131f yerel veriler ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) artan talep nedeniyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, daha sonra May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc ABD Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) verisini bekliyor. (PMI: \u015eirketlerin \u00fcretim ve hizmet faaliyetlerinin geni\u015fleyip geni\u015flemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steren anket bazl\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da S&P Global \u0130malat PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta Nisan\u2019daki 51,3\u2019ten 50,3\u2019e geriledi. (\u0130malat: Sanayi \u00fcretimi.) Hizmet PMI 50,7\u2019den 47,7\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bile\u015fik PMI ise 50,4\u2019ten 47,8\u2019e indi. (Bile\u015fik PMI: \u0130malat ve hizmetlerin birle\u015fik g\u00f6stergesi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma, \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme.)<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair belirsizlik, g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi.) Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin son a\u015famada oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmezse \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini de ifade etti. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise Tahran\u2019\u0131n geri ad\u0131m atmaya yak\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; X\u2019te bask\u0131yla teslim olman\u0131n bir yan\u0131lsama oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019te AUD\/USD paritesi 0,7150 civar\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yordu. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ekonomide daralmaya i\u015faret eden zay\u0131f Avustralya PMI verileri ve g\u00fcvenlik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelimle tetiklenmi\u015fti. Bu da o d\u00f6nemde Avustralya Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyordu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn tablo belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n bile\u015fik PMI verisi yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 52,6 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki 47,8\u2019e k\u0131yasla belirgin bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temel ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 beklentisini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bile\u015fik PMI 54,4 ile son iki y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum, paritenin art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca \u201ckorku al\u0131m\u0131\u201d ile de\u011fil, iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi aras\u0131ndaki enflasyon ve faiz politikas\u0131 farklar\u0131yla daha fazla hareket etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle odak, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. (Faiz fark\u0131: \u0130ki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark; kur \u00fczerinde etkili olabilir.)<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l veriler, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in AUD \u00fczerinde \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyordu. (Put opsiyonu: Belirli bir vadede, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.) Bug\u00fcn ise iki ekonominin de iyi performans\u0131 nedeniyle, belirleyici unsur merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 oldu\u011fundan dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu nedenle, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket olmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen \u201clong straddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi stratejiler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha uygun olabilir. (Straddle: Ayn\u0131 vade\/fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte; Strangle: Farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131; ikisi de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler.)<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Trump d\u00f6neminde ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair belirsizli\u011fin besledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman talebi de zay\u0131flad\u0131. K\u00fcresel riskler her zaman \u00f6nemli olsa da piyasa \u015fu anda ayn\u0131 jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011fa daha az odaklan\u0131yor. Bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda ani ve korku kaynakl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: AUD\/USD\u2019de hik\u00e2ye tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 2025\u2019te zay\u0131f Avustralya PMI\u2019lar\u0131 ve jeopolitik risk dolar talebini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn PMI\u2019lar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; odak RBA-Fed faiz fark\u0131, volatilite i\u00e7in straddle\/strangle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47146"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47146\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}