Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131na ait toplam mal ticareti dengesi 301,9 milyar yen fazla olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, -29,7 milyar yen a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin \u015fekilde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Beklenen a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n aksine gelen bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131, Japon mallar\u0131na yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu durum, ihracat gelirlerinin yen\u2019e \u00e7evrilmesiyle Japon yeni (JPY) i\u00e7in pozitif bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. T\u00fcrev (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede JPY vadeli i\u015fleminde uzun pozisyon veya yen \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f yenin bu ihracat g\u00fcc\u00fcnde etkisi var. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l toplam ihracat\u0131n %17\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan ara\u00e7 ihracat\u0131, uygun d\u00f6viz kuru (kur seviyesi) sayesinde de\u011fer baz\u0131nda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu rapor, bu etkinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; Japon \u00fcr\u00fcnleri k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte daha rekabet\u00e7i hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Olumlu veri, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 beklenenden erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve\/veya likiditeyi azaltma) konusunda gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flayabilir. D\u0131\u015f talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131, i\u00e7eride \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc parasal te\u015fvik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Bu nedenle faiz swap\u0131 piyasalar\u0131nda (faiz oran\u0131 takas\u0131: sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faizin de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015f edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir merkez bankas\u0131 beklentisinin fiyatlan\u0131p fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Nikkei 225 taraf\u0131nda etki iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu olsa da, yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 Toyota ve Sony gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerini yen\u2019e \u00e7evirince daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine neden olabilir. Benzer kur hareketlerinde borsa y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Nikkei \u00fczerindeki z\u0131t etkiler ve kurda sert hareket riski nedeniyle volatilitenin (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu s\u00fcrpriz veri, USD\/JPY paritesindeki (dolar\/yen kuru) dar seyrin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; parite 159 civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. Bu ortam, kurda iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harekete oynayan stratejiler i\u00e7in uygun olabilir: straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanma hedeflenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz Japonya! Nisan\u2019da ticaret dengesi 301,9 milyar yen fazla vererek beklentiyi tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu, JPY i\u00e7in pozitif; BoJ\u2019u \u015fahinle\u015ftirebilir. USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131lma, Nikkei\u2019de \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ve volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47140\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}