Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 4.550 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunduktan sonra 4.540 dolar \u00e7evresinde yatay seyretti. Piyasalar, t\u0131kanan ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehditleri ve May\u0131s ay\u0131na ait \u00f6nc\u00fc ABD PMI verisini izliyordu (PMI: Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim ve yeni sipari\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren erken d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergesi).<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran ile \u201cson a\u015famada\u201d olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmezse \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 da yineledi. Nisan ay\u0131 FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re, enflasyon %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa Fed yetkililerinin \u00e7o\u011fu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme almak zorunda kalabilir. Politika faizi %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutuldu.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, de\u011fer koruma arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr; belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fta tercih edilen varl\u0131k) ve enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (fiyatlar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruma amac\u0131) olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Tek bir kurum ya da devlete ba\u011fl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201ckar\u015f\u0131 taraf riski\u201d (\u00f6deme\/ifan\u0131n yap\u0131lmama riski) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 en fazla alt\u0131n tutan kurumlard\u0131r. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, 2022\u2019de 1.136 ton (yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar) alt\u0131n eklendi\u011fini ve bunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket eder; faizler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimindedir (tahvil: devletin bor\u00e7lanma senedi; faiz: paran\u0131n maliyeti\/getirisi).<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.540 dolar civar\u0131nda sakin kalmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor. Y\u00fcksek seviye, bir yandan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini, di\u011fer yandan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d Fed\u2019in (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya\/art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli duru\u015f) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu denge, y\u00f6n tahmini riskini art\u0131r\u0131rken, sert dalgalanma ihtimalinden yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011furuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bir anla\u015fma ile yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar aras\u0131nda gidip gelmesi, oynakl\u0131kta (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu belirsizli\u011fi \u201copsiyon\u201d ile (belirli vadede belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirmek, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z yararlanma stratejisi) etkili olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket ederse y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en petrol tankerleri i\u00e7in sava\u015f riski sigorta primlerinin %300\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Benzer bir aksama, yaln\u0131zca enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 sarsmakla kalmaz; alt\u0131na panik kaynakl\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n gelmesine de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc zemin haz\u0131rlar. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmemesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, Fed\u2019in son tutanaklar\u0131 alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz unsur. Fed fonlama faizi (bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi; piyasada k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin ana referans\u0131) zaten %3,75 seviyesindeyken, PMI gibi gelecek veriler enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederse yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. Bu da getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n gibi \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r getirili\u201d varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini (alt\u0131n yerine faiz getiren varl\u0131k alsayd\u0131n\u0131z kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z getiri) art\u0131rarak y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
2024 sonu ve 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyon (kolay gerilemeyen, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon) ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (\u00e7ekirdek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) s\u00fcrekli %3 \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019i daha hassas hale getirdi. Bu nedenle enflasyonun yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret eden her veri, piyasada sert tepki yaratabilir ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. Bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enflasyona ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal varl\u0131\u011fa\/enduraya ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) erken uyar\u0131 i\u00e7in izleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu bask\u0131lara ra\u011fmen, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m talebi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki rekor al\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, resmi sekt\u00f6r al\u0131mlar\u0131 2025 boyunca da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l net al\u0131m\u0131n 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Bu d\u00fczenli talep piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor; sert geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda nefesler tutuldu! XAU\/USD 4.540 dolarda yatay; ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tehdidi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini desteklerken, \u015fahin Fed\/PMI faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor; oynakl\u0131k artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47138\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}