Nisan ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon yava\u015flad\u0131. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,5 oldu. Buna ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi yanl\u0131s\u0131) konu\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen GBP\/USD (Sterlin\/Dolar paritesi) 1,3450 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,3400\u2019un \u00fczerinde, bu seviyenin hemen alt\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n
Hareketin ana nedeni, ABD seans\u0131nda genel dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri (tahvil faizi) ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimindeki azalma da etkili oldu. Sterlin\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden \u00e7ok dolar\u0131n hareketini yans\u0131tt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dcretici fiyat verileri tabloyu zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; hem girdi maliyetleri hem de \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) fiyatlar\u0131 beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu \u201cyukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131, ma\u011faza raf\u0131ndaki enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fse bile ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Hafta i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere verileri aras\u0131nda Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firketlerin faaliyet d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6steren anket verisi) var. Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n (hizmet+imalat toplam\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daralma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na (50 seviyesi) biraz daha yakla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin de bozulaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in ise Mart art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tahmini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta GBP\/USD, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) aras\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3450 ve 1,3400 seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 1,3400 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k yak\u0131n vadeli bant hareketini desteklerken, diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) 1,3450 ve 1,3500 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Sterlin\u2019in \u00fclke i\u00e7i zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2025 yaz\u0131na do\u011fru yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan gelen zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve PMI rakamlar\u0131, dolar\u0131n dip bulmas\u0131yla birlikte Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Bu durum, orta vadede d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 esasen temel verilerin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, istihdam gibi) belirledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn tablo daha net ve Sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. Nisan 2026 enflasyonu T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu seviye BoE\u2019nin hedefinin biraz \u00fczerinde ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki belirsizli\u011fi azalt\u0131yor. Bu, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndaki \u201cg\u00fcvercinleri\u201d (faiz indirimi yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131) cesaretlendirdi; piyasalar art\u0131k Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise dolar\u0131n temeli daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) hizmet enflasyonunun (\u00f6zellikle kira, sa\u011fl\u0131k, sigorta gibi hizmet fiyatlar\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle faizleri sabit tutuyor; bu, BoE\u2019nin gev\u015feme e\u011filimiyle net \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (ABD\u2019de ayl\u0131k i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6steren kritik veri) raporu 240 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti ve Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu destekledi.<\/p>\n
\u201cG\u00fcvercin\u201d BoE ile faizi sabit tutan Fed aras\u0131ndaki bu belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Sterlin \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1,2400 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) Temmuz vadeli put\u2019lar, yaz aylar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi beklentisine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (kay\u0131p primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Enflasyon gerilese de Sterlin 1,34\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcnde: y\u00fckseli\u015f dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan. \u00dcretici fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. BoE g\u00fcvercin, Fed s\u0131k\u0131; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47135"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47135\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}