Yen, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc hafif daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kapatt\u0131. USD\/JPY, Londra ve ABD\u2019nin erken saatlerinde 159,00\u2019un \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 158,50\u2019ye do\u011fru geriledi. Ard\u0131ndan kapan\u0131\u015fta 159,00\u2019un hemen alt\u0131nda dengelendi. Bu hareketin ana nedeni; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesi, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ft\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi).<\/p>\n
Japonya kaynakl\u0131 etkenler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 ve faiz fark\u0131 geni\u015f seyrediyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131rma ve\/veya finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 daraltma) konusunda aceleci bir sinyal vermedi. Ticaret verileri dengenin yeniden a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, makine sipari\u015flerinin de geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu tablo i\u00e7 talep taraf\u0131nda ivmenin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/JPY, g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte 158,00 ve 155,50 civar\u0131ndaki 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu durum 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutuyor; son zirveler 160,50\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131 ulusal enflasyon verisi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Tokyo a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasa beklentisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7) hafif gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Daha zay\u0131f bir veri, BoJ\u2019un mevcut duru\u015funu korumas\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri politika ad\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d i\u015f anketleri (flash PMI: ay bitmeden yay\u0131mlanan ilk ekonomik aktivite g\u00f6stergesi) ikincil \u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
158,00\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece e\u011filim yukar\u0131. 159,00 k\u0131sa vadede pivot seviye (fiyat\u0131n etraf\u0131nda dengelendi\u011fi kritik e\u015fik) konumunda. 158,00\u2019in alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, trendin g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir; 159,00\u2019\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ise oda\u011f\u0131 160,00\u2019a ve olas\u0131 resmi tepkiye ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana mesele, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131. Bu fark h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde 0,01) seviyesinde. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizi 4,0% civar\u0131nda seyrederken, BoJ\u2019un faizi 0,25% d\u00fczeyinde kal\u0131yor. Bu fark, yen ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 cazip k\u0131lm\u0131yor ve \u201ccarry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma i\u015flemi) desteklemeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131ndan izlenen kritik seviye USD\/JPY\u2019de 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fi. Bu seviye, yetkililer a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte kur bu seviyeyi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2024\u2019te \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahaleler (piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla do\u011frudan etki etme) g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015fti. Kur yeniden bu b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131n ve olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde USD\/JPY \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alman\u0131n, olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 riskli oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir. Daha kontroll\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201ccall spread\u201d kullanmakt\u0131r: \u00f6rne\u011fin 159,00 call al\u0131p 160,50 call satmak; b\u00f6ylece kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak. Ayr\u0131ca 158,00 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 satma hakk\u0131) satmak, prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamak i\u00e7in bir se\u00e7enek olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, parite 158,00 taban\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn korunabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Momentum (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131) zay\u0131fl\u0131yor olabilir; bu y\u00fczden y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgal\u0131 ilerleyebilir. Ancak en kolay y\u00f6n yukar\u0131. As\u0131l soru 160\u2019\u0131n test edilip edilmeyece\u011fi de\u011fil, test edildi\u011finde yetkililerin nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/JPY 159 alt\u0131nda dengelendi; dolar\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesi etkili. Ancak 158 \u00fczeri trend yukar\u0131, hedef 160. Faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019i destekliyor; 160 \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d, m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47131\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}