{"id":47129,"date":"2026-05-21T01:49:03","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T01:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-gorusmelerinin-risk-istahini-artirmasiyla-nzd-usd-yukselise-gecti-fedin-faiz-indirimlerinde-temkinli-durusuna-ragmen\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T01:49:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T01:49:03","slug":"abd-iran-gorusmelerinin-risk-istahini-artirmasiyla-nzd-usd-yukselise-gecti-fedin-faiz-indirimlerinde-temkinli-durusuna-ragmen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-gorusmelerinin-risk-istahini-artirmasiyla-nzd-usd-yukselise-gecti-fedin-faiz-indirimlerinde-temkinli-durusuna-ragmen\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla NZD\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti; Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerinde temkinli duru\u015funa ra\u011fmen"},"content":{"rendered":"

NZD\/USD, yenilenen ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 daha iyi piyasa havas\u0131 ve son FOMC (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\/Fed) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 gerilerken 0,5870\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Parite 0,5874 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

FOMC tutanaklar\u0131, Fed yetkililerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle faiz indirimi konusunda temkinli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeden (faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeden) \u00f6nce daha net kan\u0131t g\u00f6rmek istediklerini ortaya koydu. ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri (devlet tahvillerinin faizi) ilk etapta destek buldu, daha sonra risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) artmas\u0131yla tablo de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve \u00d6nemli Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerin \u201cson a\u015famada\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi, piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu da Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 gibi risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerine (k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131 iyile\u015fince de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filiminde olan) talebi destekledi. Dikkat, yakla\u015fan Yeni Zelanda 1. \u00e7eyrek Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve S&P PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; ekonomide geni\u015fleme\/daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte parite 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama; fiyat\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131) 0,5849 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ancak 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,5902 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda seyretti. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 54\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131; diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ge\u00e7i\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 0,5879 ve 0,5888\u2019de.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seviyeler: 0,5879, 0,5888, 0,5902 ve 0,5965. Destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin duraksayabildi\u011fi seviye): 0,5865, 0,5849 ve 0,5846.<\/p>\n

NZD\/USD 0,5870\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken, jeopolitik iyimserlik ile merkez bankas\u0131 temkinlili\u011fi aras\u0131ndaki klasik \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yenilenen ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirerek Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cGreenback\u201de (ABD Dolar\u0131) k\u0131yasla daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak Fed\u2019in son tutanaklar\u0131, faiz indiriminde aceleci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon \u0130\u015flemi Yapanlar \u0130\u00e7in Strateji Notlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu, son ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %3,1 gelmesiyle anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r; bu veri enflasyonun tam olarak kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu durum, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n %5,50 seviyesindeki resmi nakit oran\u0131 (politika faizi) ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; piyasa g\u00fcveni korunursa bu faiz seviyesi cazip getiri sunuyor. Bu nedenle faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) paritenin y\u00f6n\u00fcnde belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Olumlu havan\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, 0,5902 direncinin \u00fczerinde bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131) sahip al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Yeni Zelanda perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi beklentileri a\u015farsa olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. Jeopolitik cephede ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olursa riski de s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan, \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u00f6zellikle S&P PMI ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite; fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) art\u0131rabilir. Bu durumda \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan hem call hem put sat\u0131n alma; y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, belirli bir y\u00f6ne bahis almadan belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flemeye yarar.<\/p>\n

Dikkatli olmak gerekiyor; benzer \u201crisk-on\u201d (risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem) havas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler, Kiwi\u2019nin (Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131) k\u00fcresel dalgalanmalara ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Paritenin 0,5900 \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131p (ge\u00e7ip) kal\u0131c\u0131 olamamas\u0131, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 100 d\u00f6nemlik hareketli ortalama \u00e7evresindeki fiyat hareketi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD-\u0130ran iyimserli\u011fi \u201crisk-on\u201du canland\u0131rd\u0131, NZD\/USD 0,5870\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 faiz indiriminde temkinli. Teknikte 0,5902 kritik. G\u00f6zler NZ perakende ve PMI verilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47129"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47129\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}