Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131, petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 piyasadaki miktar\u0131 azaltmas\u0131yla geriledi. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), stoklar\u0131n 17,8 milyon varil azalarak yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi\u011fini bildirdi. <\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen petrole talep artt\u0131. Bu ay deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ham petrol sevkiyat\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 5,3 milyon varile ula\u015ft\u0131; bu h\u0131z korunursa yeni bir rekor k\u0131r\u0131lacak. <\/p>\n
Son veriler, ABD\u2019nin kay\u0131tlarda ilk kez net ihracat\u00e7\u0131 (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan fazla olmas\u0131) konumuna ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130hracat\u0131n, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. <\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan al\u0131c\u0131lar alternatif tedarik arad\u0131. ABD ayr\u0131ca arz kesintisinin etkisini azaltmak i\u00e7in Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nden (SPR: devletin acil durumlar i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu petrol stoku) ham petrol piyasaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc. <\/p>\n
ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki 17,8 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bo\u011fa: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi) sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Stoklar yakla\u015f\u0131k 415 milyon varile inerek bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilerken, piyasadaki \u201ctampon\u201d (beklenmedik arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik pay\u0131) h\u0131zla daral\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolar seviyesinde bulunan West Texas Intermediate (WTI: ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
Bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana nedeni rekor seviyeye giden ihracat. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, Brent\u2019in (Kuzey Denizi referans\u0131; k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kullan\u0131lan fiyat) WTI\u2019a g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 dolar daha pahal\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oldu; bu da ABD petrol\u00fcn\u00fc yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6ndermeyi k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu fiyat fark\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, ABD stoklar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 erimesi bekleniyor. <\/p>\n
ABD petrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13,3 milyon varil ile tarihi zirvesine yak\u0131n. \u00dcreticilerin, hem i\u00e7 talebi hem de d\u0131\u015f talep \u00e7ekimini k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede kar\u015f\u0131layacak kadar \u00fcretimi art\u0131rmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu da arz-talep dengesinin s\u0131k\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na ve fiyatlar\u0131n yeni aksakl\u0131klara duyarl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR) de son sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 345 milyon varile gerileyerek onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine indi. Bu durum 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloya benziyor; ancak rezervin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, kamunun piyasaya m\u00fcdahale kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu \u201cg\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131\u201d zay\u0131flarken, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte piyasay\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u00f6nemli bir ara\u00e7 etkisini yitiriyor. <\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131 ve risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Temmuz veya A\u011fustos 2026 vadeli WTI al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ya da al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) ile uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) kurmak, olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Sert stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, piyasada arz\u0131n yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; beklenmedik bir geli\u015fme fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. <\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, EIA\u2019n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok raporu en kritik veri olacak. Yeni bir b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasadaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit edebilir ve fiyatlar\u0131 kilit diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fte a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat b\u00f6lgesi) \u00fczerine itebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca Brent-WTI fark\u0131n\u0131 (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) izlemeli; fark\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, i\u00e7 stoklar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 ihracat patlamas\u0131yla 17,8 milyon varil eridi, son bir y\u0131l\u0131n dibinde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u015foku Brent-WTI fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131; WTI 95 dolara t\u0131rmanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47124\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}