G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,11 art\u0131\u015fla 76,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki (faiz) geri \u00e7ekilme ve genel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n duraksamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi (piyasan\u0131n uzun vadeli faiz g\u00f6stergesi), son aylardaki en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra geriledi. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar (faiz ya da kupon \u00f6demeyen varl\u0131klar) aras\u0131nda yer alan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, de\u011ferli metal tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d (paray\u0131 faizde de\u011ferlendirmeyip metalde tutman\u0131n maliyeti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutabilece\u011fi beklentisini destekledi. Piyasalar, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve enflasyona nas\u0131l bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na temel olu\u015fturan tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n kayd\u0131) izledi.<\/p>\n
Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme sa\u011flanamazken, iki taraftan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tuttu. Bu da \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131klar) talebini destekledi; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f de bundan pay ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131; ABD dolar\u0131, faiz oranlar\u0131, madencilik arz\u0131, geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmden gelen arz ve yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan etkilenir. Bunlara borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: borsada hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) \u00fczerinden gelen ak\u0131mlar da dahildir. Elektronik ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi gibi alanlardaki sanayi talebi, ayr\u0131ca ABD, \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019daki talep ko\u015fullar\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00e7o\u011fu zaman alt\u0131ndaki hareketleri izler.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anki \u00f6nemli fark, fiziksel talepteki belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7; bu durum fiyatlar i\u00e7in daha sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131 (end\u00fcstriyel t\u00fcketim) 2026\u2019da yeni bir rekor k\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor: Geni\u015fleyen g\u00fcne\u015f paneli \u00fcretimi ve 5G altyap\u0131 kurulumlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle 690 milyon onsun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi t\u00fcketimi, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fi\u015fken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u015ftah\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir destek unsuru.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 (bir ons alt\u0131n almak i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 ons g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren oran) takip edilmeli. Oran \u015fu anda 51:1 civar\u0131nda ve tarihsel ortalamalara g\u00f6re (\u00e7o\u011fu d\u00f6nem 65:1\u2019e yak\u0131n) belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla pahal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret eder. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oran, sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve bu a\u015famada alt\u0131n\u0131n daha iyi \u201cde\u011fer\u201d sunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi talebi ile tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n bir arada oldu\u011fu bu tabloda, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi de\u011ferlendirirken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda \u201czararda\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyattan daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m hakk\u0131) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primle (opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) 2025 zirvelerine do\u011fru bir toparlanmaya pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir; fiyat yatay seyrederse b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye kayb\u0131 riskini azalt\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece hem d\u00fc\u015fen getiriler hem de sanayi al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n destekleyebilece\u011fi bir harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyal oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in \u201c\u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\u201d (pairs trade: iki enstr\u00fcmanda z\u0131t pozisyon alarak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinde (t\u00fcretilmi\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7), ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcrevlerinde e\u015fde\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7) almay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Ama\u00e7, oranlar\u0131n tarihsel seviyelerine d\u00f6nmesinden (ortalamas\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131ndan) yararlanmak ve de\u011ferli metal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n genel y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak getiri aramakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, tahvil getirilerindeki geri \u00e7ekilme ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle %3,11 artarak 76 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak 51:1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 ralliyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; sanayi talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47121\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}