Alt\u0131n, k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi) duraklamas\u0131 ve ABD tahvil faizleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.453 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.492 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, 16 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan %4,687\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,623\u2019e geriledi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi ise Temmuz 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,200\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %5,154\u2019e indi. Faizler, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskleri nedeniyle y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131) beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131; bu durum faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %40\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %29\u2019du.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in Nisan toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, Philadelphia Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Anna Paulson politikay\u0131 \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131k\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131 ve belirli ko\u015fullarda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f durumda kal\u0131rken, ABD Senatosu \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlarla ilgili War Powers Resolution\u2019\u0131 (Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n askeri yetkilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefleyen karar tasar\u0131s\u0131) ilerletti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 99,36 civar\u0131nda, alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 20 d\u00f6nemlik Bollinger ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n ortalama ve oynakl\u0131k band\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.625 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma) seviyeleri 4.465 ve 4.350 dolar; diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlanma) seviyeleri 4.785 ve 5.000 dolar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n) duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; piyasalar Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar neredeyse %40 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da Fed\u2019in tonunu yumu\u015fatmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetinin (faiz getirisi ka\u00e7\u0131rma) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem gibi kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 ara\u00e7lar) kullananlar i\u00e7in, alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften veya y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 4.350 dolar civar\u0131ndaki teknik deste\u011fi hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan hak) almak, riski ba\u015ftan belirli bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Daha agresif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda (futures: ileri tarihli fiyat \u00fczerinden al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; 4.625 dolar direnci risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in referans al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesi yerine bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in call credit spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonu ile prim toplama; y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na oynayan yap\u0131) se\u00e7enek olabilir. K\u0131sa baca\u011f\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 4.625 dolar direncinin \u00fczerine koymak, prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden, yatay kalmas\u0131ndan ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) azalmas\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son Commitment of Traders (COT: vadeli piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren rapor) verisine g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler ve hedge fonlar net uzun (net-long: y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftada da azaltt\u0131. \u201cManaged money\u201d (fon y\u00f6neticilerinin i\u015fletti\u011fi spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlar) taraf\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f bahislerinin azalmas\u0131, kurumsal alg\u0131n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu desen, 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiziksel talep (ger\u00e7ek alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131) fiyatlara taban olu\u015fturabilir. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 destek unsuru olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar resmi veriler geli\u015fen \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n biriktirme e\u011filimini devam ettirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu talep, sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyebilir; bu nedenle do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyonlar yak\u0131ndan y\u00f6netilmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Tahvil faizlerindeki geri \u00e7ekilmeyle XAU\/USD 4.492 dolarda yatay. Ancak \u015fahin Fed beklentisi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon riski bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; destek 4.465\u20134.350.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47116\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}