K\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) e\u011filimi, Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. EUR\/PLN ve EUR\/CZK, son d\u00f6nem bantlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor. S\u00f6z konusu bantlar EUR\/PLN i\u00e7in 4,230\u20134,260 ve EUR\/CZK i\u00e7in 24,250\u201324,400.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler art\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 son g\u00fcnlerde de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Ekonomi ve cari denge (\u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve gelir-gider dengesini g\u00f6steren hesap) \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Macar forinti de son siyasi geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel e\u011filimleri yans\u0131tmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. HUF varl\u0131klar\u0131nda \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle elde tutulan pozisyon) birikmi\u015f olmas\u0131, k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Kur piyasas\u0131 (d\u00f6viz) genellikle pozisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alanlardan biri olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (NBH) \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi veya gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti; bu da \u201ccarry\u201d (y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi; faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7) cazibesini azaltabilir. EUR\/HUF 362 seviyesinde kapand\u0131. 365\u2019in \u00fczeri, NBH\u2019nin faiz indirimlerine ili\u015fkin beklentileri etkileyebilir ve kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 faiz piyasas\u0131na da ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel piyasalardaki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131, Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa para birimleri i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturmuyor. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) bu ay 106\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in belirgin bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu para birimlerine daha \u201cay\u0131\u201d (de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc) bir bak\u0131\u015f benimsiyoruz.<\/p>\n
EUR\/PLN ve EUR\/CZK\u2019nin, son i\u015flem bantlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na do\u011fru s\u0131ras\u0131yla 4,260 ve 24,400 civar\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fini izliyoruz. Bu hareketi, Polonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan 2026 sanayi \u00fcretimi verisinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etmesi destekliyor. Bu paritelerde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n, kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomiye gecikmeli olumsuz etki temel endi\u015fe. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Almanya ihracat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, iki \u00e7eyrek sonra Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n cari denge g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n (finansmana eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131, faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi) b\u00f6lge verilerine etkisinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha belirginle\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. Bu da para birimleri i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren para birimlerinden Macar forinti de bu k\u00fcresel e\u011filimler i\u00e7inde yorulma i\u015faretleri veriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Macar varl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki uzun pozisyonlardan k\u00e2r realizasyonuna (eldeki kazanc\u0131 cebe koymak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f) y\u00f6nelmesini bekliyoruz. Bu ortamda geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 aday kur taraf\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca NBH\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin tonu, forintte carry i\u015flemlerinin cazibesini azalt\u0131yor. EUR\/HUF\u2019nin 365\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 kritik bir sinyal olur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu seviyede faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaya (beklentiyi fiyatlara yans\u0131tmak) ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6yle bir hareket, faiz pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini (pozisyon kapama) tetikleyebilir ve kurdaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar, Orta-Do\u011fu Avrupa kurlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: EUR\/PLN 4,260\u2019a, EUR\/CZK 24,400\u2019e dayand\u0131. NBH\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin tonu carry\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, EUR\/HUF\u2019ta 365 alarm seviyesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}