USD\/CAD, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CAD) beklentiden zay\u0131f gelen T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi sonras\u0131 gerilemesiyle 1,3773 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. T\u00dcFE\u2019de \u00f6zellikle hizmetler gibi baz\u0131 kalemlerde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek mallarda ise y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Veriler, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u015fimdilik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda k\u00fcresel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada\u2019y\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi not ediliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan swap spreadleri (swap faizi ile devlet tahvili faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) geni\u015fledi ve USD\/CAD i\u00e7in tahmini \u201ctemel denge\u201d (verilerle hesaplanan makul kur seviyesi) 1,3567\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Spot kurun (anl\u0131k kur) adil de\u011fer tahmininin (modelin \u201cmakul\u201d g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc seviye) bir standart sapmadan (tarihi dalgalanman\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) fazla \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD, 31 Mart\u20131 May\u0131s d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re %50 d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin (Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme: ara diren\u00e7\/ destek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan teknik seviye) olan 1,3758\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde izlenen yak\u0131n vade seviyeler 1,3800\u20131,3815 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019te zay\u0131f Kanada enflasyonu, CAD i\u00e7in net bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyaliydi. Fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bu beklenmedik yava\u015flama, BoC\u2019yi bekle-g\u00f6r pozisyonuna iterken USD\/CAD kurunu 1,3773\u2019e do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekledi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nemli teknik direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadede strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda (USD) daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye pozisyon almakt\u0131. Bunu, CAD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alarak ve 1,3800\u20131,3815 hedefiyle yapt\u0131k. B\u00f6ylece zay\u0131f Kanada verisinden yararlan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131k.<\/p>\n
Ancak paritenin tahmini adil de\u011ferinin bir standart sapmadan fazla \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de not ettik. Bu, y\u00fckseli\u015fin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyordu. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr sapmalar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kapan\u0131r; nitekim 2025\u2019in ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde USD\/CAD \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 1,36 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Bu ders bug\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tablo de\u011fi\u015fti. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n Nisan 2026 man\u015fet enflasyonu %2,9 geldi; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani kolay gerilemeyip BoC hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, BoC\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 2025\u2019te bekledi\u011fimizden daha da azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle USD\/CAD yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3650\u2019deyken \u00f6nceki strateji art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil. \u015eimdi y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 satmak (volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak) i\u00e7in vade sonu USD kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha yukar\u0131da olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 yazmak (out-of-the-money USD call satmak: piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Kanada\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 CAD i\u00e7in taban (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan unsur) olu\u015fturabilir. Bu pozisyon, parite yatay kal\u0131rsa (dar aral\u0131kta) ya da d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Zay\u0131f Kanada T\u00dcFE\u2019si CAD\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131, USD\/CAD 1,3773\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; BoC bekle-g\u00f6r sinyali verdi. Ancak kur adil de\u011ferin \u00fczerinde. 2026\u2019da yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon CAD\u2019a taban; strateji: OTM USD call satarak volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47109\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}